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Hawk’s 2014 Caulfield Guineas Day Analysis and Selections

October 11, 2014

The first big day of the spring is here, with Caulfield Guineas day featuring five Group 1 races – four from Caulfield and one from Randwick.

It’s a defining day for the Cox Plate, while next week’s Caulfield Cup field will be much clearer after today.

So who will win? Hopefully we can find more winners after a nice few weeks.

Good luck today!

CAULFIELD

Race 1 – LISTED DEBUTANT STAKES (1000m)

3 – SCHOPENHAUER
2 – OF THE BRAVE
5 – STYLISH ASSASSIN
8 – HELFORD RIVER

Race 2 – GROUP 3 THOROUGHBRED CLUB STAKES (1200m)

1 – EARTHQUAKE
8 – MORE RADIANT
2 – AIMEE
6 – YGRITTE

Race 3 – LISTED WEEKEND HUSSLER STAKES (1400m)

5 – TANGO’S DAUGHTER
3 – SISTINE DEMON
2 – ALMA’S FURY
4 – EXIMIUS

Race 4 – GROUP 2 SCHILLACI STAKES (1000m)

3 – NOT LISTENIN’TOME
7 – RUBICK
4 – OVERREACH
5 – PLATELET

Race 5 – GROUP 2 HERBERT POWER STAKES (2400m)

1 – PROTECTIONIST
2 – SANGSTER
4 – LORD VAN PERCY
5 – LET’S MAKE ADEAL

Race 6 – GROUP 1 CAULFIELD STAKES (2000m)

A top renewal of the Caulfield Stakes which looks like it will serve as an important Cox Plate guide.

I’m very keen on FAWKNER here to add another Caulfield feature to his tally. He was terrific first-up in the Makybe Diva Stakes, just failing to run down DISSIDENT, and comes here second-up. He’ll obviously take more improvement for the run, but he should get a very good run here and may prove hard to toss.

At odds, SERTORIUS can run a race as he prepares for next week’s Caulfield Cup. He was scratched from the Turnbull last week due to an irregular blood test, but bounced back quickly so it’s hardly affected his preparation. He has been good without being great so far, the step up in trip should suit and I’d hope to see him finding some form here ahead of next week’s race.

Another one scratched from the Turnbull, but for a different reason, was CRACKERJACK KING. His Underwood Stakes third was outstanding, albeit with a pace scenario to suit. It doesn’t look too different here, though, which should give him an opportunity to produce a similar run.

Also suited by the likely pace scenario is SIDE GLANCE, who led them up in the Arlington Million last time out and battled on gamely but couldn’t match Hardest Core and Magician. He seems to always run a consistent race but rarely wins, save for last year’s Mackinnon Stakes, and his ability to make his own luck sees him as a potential place candidate here.

Next best HAPPY TRAILS and DEAR DEMI.

3 – FAWKNER
6 – SERTORIUS
7 – CRACKERJACK KING
2 – SIDE GLANCE

Race 7 – GROUP 1 TOORAK HANDICAP (1600m)

A very open Toorak and tough to decipher.

Despite being lumped with 58kg, I think GUEST OF HONOUR can race his way into Cox Plate contention here. He has found form at his last two starts for two nice wins, and the form through Mull of Killough and Long John last start can stand up here. Big chance.

I like AKAVOROUN as a horse and I think he is getting up to a trip where we should see his best. He’s been far from disgraced in two runs to date this spring and should be peaking here. Can get a nice run and be right in the finish.

COMMANDING JEWEL was disappointing last start, but should be ridden colder today and if she runs up to her form prior, she should be in the mix.

Next best ARABIAN GOLD, who was stellar first up in Sydney but faces a new test here, TRUST IN A GUST and ATLANTE.

1 – GUEST OF HONOUR
10 – AKAVOROUN
3 – COMMANDING JEWEL
7 – ARABIAN GOLD

Race 8 – GROUP 1 THOUSAND GUINEAS (1600m)

It seems odd having the Thousand Guineas on the Saturday, and it doesn’t really make sense with the Flight Stakes the week before. Still, there has to be a winner.

The three favourites – LUMOSTY, GO INDY GO, AFLEET ESPRIT – deserve their place at the head of the market and all are strong chances.

At odds, though, I’m looking at SABATINI to run a bold race. Sabatini won the Quezette Stakes before finishing third to Afleet Esprit and Lumosty down the straight in the Cap D’Antibes Stakes. Last start, in the Prelude, she finished fifth to Afleet Esprit after missing the start and boxing on okay. I think, if she can begin a little bit better, she might herself a little more forward today and the mile shouldn’t be a query at all. I’m expecting a bold run.

Putting Lumosty in for second on the basis that the mile should be right up her alley, while Go Indy Go is another that will relish the mile. Not so sure about Afleet Esprit at the trip so she goes in for fourth.

4 – SABATINI
6 – LUMOSTY
2 – GO INDY GO
3 – AFLEET ESPRIT

Race 9 – GROUP 1 CAULFIELD GUINEAS (1600m)

An interesting Guineas, not sure these are absolute topliners but there are some nice horses amongst them nevertheless.

The hype centres around RICH ENUFF, who has been most impressive in three starts this spring. The big query for me, though, is the mile and the fact he’s unlikely to get an easy time up near the speed.

Therefore, I’m looking at LOOKS LIKE THE CAT, who looks like he’ll relish every inch of the mile. He does meet Rich Enuff 2.5kg worse for a last start defeat, but up to a mile with an extra run under his belt and a more favourable pace scenario, I think he can win. It wouldn’t surprise me to see him emerge as a Cox Plate contender after this.

Rich Enuff has to be right up there, while SHOOTING TO WIN – coming off a dominant Stan Fox Stakes victory – and CHIVALRY, who just needs to find some luck in his races, are other top chances.

7 – LOOKS LIKE THE CAT
3 – RICH ENUFF
4 – SHOOTING TO WIN
6 – CHIVALRY

Race 10 – GROUP 3 SPORTINGBET SPRINT SERIES FINAL (1200m)

1 – GIRL GUIDE
2 – SHAMAL WIND
3 – BRILLIANT BISC
11 – SOOSA RAMA

RANDWICK

Race 6 – GROUP 1 SPRING CHAMPION STAKES (2000m)

A small field but an interesting affair nonetheless.

Am I the only one shocked at the price about FIRST SEAL? Big unders for mine, no matter how good she was last week, and would be happy to stick with the two star colts instead.

Happy to stick with SWEYNESSE instead. Terrific win in the Gloaming Stakes last time out and he looks a real nice middle-distance horse in the making. I think he can make the step to Group 1 company here.

PANZER DIVISION comes out of the George Main Stakes, which has already proved a strong form reference with Lucia Valentina winning the Turnbull Stakes and Royal Descent just being edged out in the Epsom Handicap. Not sure the 2000m will be his right trip but has the right form and will be the main danger.

FIRST SEAL obviously must be included, and those three look head and shoulders above the next best, POUNAMU.

1 – SWEYNESSE
3 – PANZER DIVISION
8 – FIRST SEAL
5 – POUNAMU

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