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Hawk’s 2014 Makybe Diva Stakes/Golden Rose Day Analysis and Selections

September 13, 2014

A top day of racing in Australia today sees Group 1 racing in both Sydney and Melbourne. And while the strength of the Sydney card is questionable, Melbourne’s card looks top notch.

Who will win today? Well, hopefully us! But it’s hard to take anything for granted on what looks a tough wicket.

FLEMINGTON

Race 1 – LISTED CAP D’ANTIBES STAKES (1100m)

7 – LUMOSTY
9 – MORE RADIANT
6 – TRAVESTON GIRL
1 – SABATINI

Race 2 – SOFITEL GIRLS’ DAY OUT 2000 (2000m)

1 – MASKED MARVEL
5 – MARKSMANSHIP
2 – WHO SHOT THEBARMAN
6 – TRADE COMMISSIONER

Race 3 – SPRING IS THE SEASON HANDICAP (1700m)

3 – PRINCE OF PENZANCE
11 – SHIKARPOUR
1 – BRAMBLES
7 – SIGNOFF

Race 4 – LISTED LIVING LEGENDS STAKES (1400m)

3 – MERION
5 – ZEBULON
2 – CHIVALRY
11 – DIVAN

Race 5 – GROUP 2 LET’S ELOPE STAKES (1400m)

Many have this down as a race between GREGERS, who has won two-from-two this prep and steps up to 1400m again, and COMMANDING JEWEL, who flew home in the Cockram Stakes.

They are definitely chances, but I’d prefer to stick with the fresh SOLICIT, who maps well and should prove hard to beat. I think she’s probably best as a sprinter-miler, really, and this race sets up beautifully for her.

Next best GIG, who is flying, from DEAR DEMI.

6 – SOLICIT
1 – COMMANDING JEWEL
3 – GREGERS
7 – GIG

Race 6 – GROUP 2 DANEHILL STAKES (1200m)

The toughest race of the day for mine.

The top three are all proven to some extent, and I cannot believe the price about GHIBELLINES. He always looked raw as a two-year-old and I think he’s furnished into a nice three-year-old. I look forward to seeing the progression he can make here.

GET THE NOD aims to remain unbeaten, while BRAZEN BEAU brings good form from the Brisbane winter.

However, the two down the bottom also catch the eye – especially ONEROUS – and while it’s a big step up, I think he should be in the right position to capitalise. Therefore, I’m putting him on top.

Other chances are obviously GALAXY PEGASUS, as well as LOOKS LIKE THE CAT and NORDIC EMPIRE.

16 – ONEROUS
1 – GHIBELLINES
3 – GET THE NOD
2 – BRAZEN BEAU

Race 7 – GROUP 1 MAKYBE DIVA STAKES (1600m)

An intriguing line-up here. Not really sure the race deserves Group 1 billing, but then again, there are a number of races in Australia these days that don’t deserve it. It may have achieved the ratings to be considered a Group 1, but really, it is a lead-up race, not a final. The idea that ratings should determine Group 1 status is narrow-minded and wrong.

Now that my rant is over, I’m extremely keen on reigning Caulfield Cup winner FAWKNER here.

His first up stats are mixed, but he did win the 1400m handicap by four lengths on this day two years ago, while he also boasts a third to Black Caviar in the William Reid Stakes among his other fresh runs. He’s a bit more dour these days, so the 1600m first up suits. He maps well and can finish on strongly late.

BOBAN has become somewhat of an enigma since his terrific spring last year. He was very good first up, but just didn’t have the same dash second up. He’s probably better suited here up to a mile, and maps better today than he did in the Memsie. He’s the one to beat for mine.

PUISSANCE DE LUNE was beaten a nose by Foreteller in this race last year. This has been his aim all along, as they try to get a Group 1 win out of him, and his Memsie Stakes run was very good. Should be in the right spot, it just depends if he has the same dash he had last year.

DISSIDENT deserves favouritism after his Memsie Stakes romp but given we were able to get 16/1 about him last start, $3 seems way too short here and I’d prefer to play others.

That’s not the end to the chances, either. I’m not sure SPILLWAY will be able to get enough of a cart into the race, but if he does, he’s some chance, while SERTORIUS also wouldn’t surprise.

2 – FAWKNER
3 – BOBAN
6 – PUISSANCE DE LUNE
9 – DISSIDENT

Race 8 – GROUP 3 BOBBIE LEWIS QUALITY (1200m)

It’s a shame El Roca came out of this race this morning, as he looked the day’s lock for mine.

Instead, I’m sticking with last year’s Danehill winner CHARLIE BOY, who showed a clear liking for the straight and who should be in the right spot.

AKAVOROUN will probably want further but there’s no doubt he still has points in hand – I’d be expecting him to win a nice race this spring – while FLAMBERGE was good last start and will be a tough nut to crack here.

Next best are last year’s quinella, SPEEDINESS and TEMPLE OF BOOM, with a slight leaning towards the latter.

11 – CHARLIE BOY
8 – AKAVOROUN
3 – FLAMBERGE
2 – TEMPLE OF BOOM

Race 9 – LISTED THE SOFITEL HANDICAP (1400m)

5 – SCAPOLO
18 – LATE CHARGE
3 – RHYTHM TO SPARE
10 – THUNDERBIRD ONE

ROSEHILL

Race 1 – THE PASLODE HANDICAP (1500m)

10 – SHERBET BOMB
2 – COPY
6 – SENSUALISM
9 – DIVA DEE

Race 2 – MCGRATH ESTATE AGENTS HANDICAP (1800m)

10 – CLEANSING ALE
8 – RAGTIME COWBOY JOE
12 – MARTIAN
5 – COCKTAIL TIME

Race 3 – SPORTSYEAR SPRINT (1200m)

4 – WOODBINE
7 – OH SO ADORABLE
12 – FARE WELL
9 – MURDER OF CROWS

Race 4 – GROUP 2 THEO MARKS STAKES (1400m)

In all fairness, a pretty weak Theo Marks field.

For mine, KIRRAMOSA stood out despite her interrupted preparation. She was great first up in what I consider to be a stronger race than what her main dangers, CLUSTER and BULL POINT, have been contesting. This looks perfect for her as she progresses to the longer races.

LASER HAWK looks like he might be returning to something near his best, while TOUGHER THAN EVER could get a soft lead.

4 – KIRRAMOSA
8 – CLUSTER
5 – BULL POINT
1 – LASER HAWK

Race 5 – GROUP 3 KINGSTON TOWN STAKES (2000m)

11 – GALLATIN
6 – LA AMISTAD
5 – GREATWOOD
9 – CELTIC PRINCE

Race 6 – GROUP 3 SHERACO STAKES (1200m)

1 – CATKINS
6 – SHAMALIA
7 – BELLE DE COEUR
3 – ESTONIAN PRINCESS

Race 7 – GROUP 1 GOLDEN ROSE (1400m)

A very open Golden Rose, with a plethora of chances.

What makes it more confusing is that all bar one of these raced on heavy ground last start, and if the track holds up as dead, there could be some notable form reversals.

One horse I have a big opinion of is SARAJEVO, who has finished fourth at both starts this preparation.

BETTER LAND looked like he wouldn’t gain a start, but he has snuck in and looks a terrific prospect. He looked like he was about to launch to win the Up and Coming Stakes when the wayward Liberation unbalanced him. The dead track should suit better too, so I would be surprised if he’s not in the mix.

San Domenico Stakes winner NOSTRADAMUS and Run To The Rose winner HALLOWED CROWN look top chances, too, as does Golden Slipper third BRING ME THE MAID.

If there’s one at odds to run a huge race, it could be BACHMAN.

11 – SARAJEVO
12 – BETTER LAND
6 – NOSTRADAMUS
3 – HALLOWED CROWN

Race 8 – PJ’S IRISH PUB PARRAMATTA HANDICAP (1400m)

14 – IDANCE
6 – ALIAS
10 – ENGAGEMENT
8 – BLACK REVOLVER

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