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Hawk’s Saturday Selections: 2013 Golden Rose Day

September 14, 2013

Golden Rose day has dawned, and it seems that the spring starts to get serious from here on in.

The feature’s a tough race to assess, and it’s hard to have any confidence whatsoever, but I’ll be cheering home Eurozone.

And at Moonee Valley, Atlantic Jewel looks to be over the line in the Stocks Stakes, with more interest in her winning margin.

Due to time constraints, I’ve included for the Golden Rose and the four Group 2 races a summary I wrote for Luxbet’s affiliates yesterday.

Good luck today!

ROSEHILL

Race 1 – TAB.COM.AU HANDICAP (1400m)

5 – INDEX LINKED
4 – HOSTING
2 – REUNITE
11 – TURNLEY

Race 2 – PJ’S IRISH PUB PARRAMATTA HANDICAP (1500m)

6 – SAIL
8 – WIND BENDER
2 – JUST AS COSMIC
12 – THE SPECIAL TWO

Race 3 – THE PASLODE SPRINT (1100m)

2 – REFLECTANCE
6 – LIVING ON A PRAYER
12 – DIAMOND OASIS
5 – SHELFORD

Race 4 – MCGRATH ESTATE AGENTS HANDICAP

1 – ECUADOR
6 – MULTILATERAL
5 – GUDERIAN
4 – LET’S BE A STAR

Race 5 – GROUP 2 SEBRING SPRINT (1400m)

A race that has been won by some top gallopers over the years, Rain Affair has opened up a short priced favourite in a race that looks weaker than his last assignment. However, with a good track expected, he may be some risk. Solzhenitsyn ran third in the Canterbury Stakes behind Pierro and More Joyous, and if he were to run to that, he’d be awfully hard to beat here. And at odds, Your Honour could be one to surprise. He only stepped up to metropolitan class last start in a 0-78 at Sandown, where he finished a tremendous fourth. He looks to have plenty of upside, and while this may be a step too far, he’s one worth watching for the future.

2 – SOLZHENITSYN
1 – RAIN AFFAIR
11 – YOUR HONOUR
6 – MONTON

Race 6 – GROUP 3 SHERACO STAKES (1200m)

12 – PERON
7 – DYSTOPIA
3 – BENNETTA
1 – APPEARANCE

Race 7 – GROUP 1 GOLDEN ROSE (1400m)

This weekend’s Golden Rose looks set to be one of the highlights of the spring.

In recent years, the Golden Rose has been light on numbers but has still been a top class race. This year features a large field and looks to be high on quality. It’s an open race, with every runner looking to have some chance, and with the two prominent lead ups – the Run to the Rose at Rosehill and the McNeil Stakes at Caulfield – marred by interference and bad luck, big turnarounds in form wouldn’t surprise.

Late entry Prince Harada is the favourite after a luckless second to Fast ‘n’ Rocking, who he meets again, in the McNeil Stakes at Caulfield two weeks ago. Despite severe interference near the finish, Prince Harada got going again and despite a beaten margin of two lengths, he was a length in front just metres past the post. The inside barrier could pose a problem, because he could end up in the same position as two weeks ago. He’s also going the Sydney way the first time, which may be where Fast ‘n’ Rocking (fifth in the Golden Slipper and Champagne Stakes) may have his measure.

Some astute Luxbet punters took $201 about Cluster in early August. The son of Fastnet Rock is still a maiden, but he has caught the eye at two starts this preparation. From a kinder draw here, he should be right in the race.

Zoustar looked a good chance before the barrier draw, but with the carpark alley, he’s going to need every bit of luck if he’s to win on Saturday.

The value in the race looks to lie with Eurozone. He has been specifically set for this race, compared to some of his rivals who have targets further down the track. He lost his unbeaten tag in the Run to the Rose, but he was three wide the trip and he struggled to come on. The track that day favoured horses near the rail, so it would pay to forgive that effort.

I also wouldn’t completely write off War, who improved immensely second up to take the Up and Coming Stakes. I think Drago’s the better horse, no doubt, but War is likely to be better suited to this trip and he still seems a bit untapped. I’d be including him in all exotics.

8 – EUROZONE
2 – FAST ‘N’ ROCKING
4 – ZOUSTAR
13 – PRINCE HARADA

Race 8 – GROUP 3 KINGSTON TOWN STAKES (2000m)

11 – PRINCE CHERI
2 – PELICANO
3 – POLISH KNIGHT
10 – I’M IMPOSING

MOONEE VALLEY

Race 1 – SPORTINGBET BEST TOTE PLUS PLATE (1200m)

2 – MAY’S DREAM
4 – ANTARCTIC MISSILE
3 – ZA MOULIN ROUGE
6 – GODIVA ROCK

Race 2 – F VITALE & SONS HANDICAP (1500m)

4 – ORION
7 – LE MANS
2 – DIVINE CALLING
1 – HONEY STEEL’S GOLD

Race 3 – 1PRINT.COM.AU HANDICAP (2500m)

1 – MOTIVADO
7 – PICTURE EDITOR
2 – GOTTA TAKE CARE
3 – ANAGOLD

Race 4 – GROUP 2 STOCKS STAKES (1600m)

Atlantic Jewel looks a moral on paper, and she’s been backed as if so. This unbeaten mare was electrifying in the Memsie Stakes, first up in almost 18 months. She meets a far inferior field here, and  if she was meeting them in a true handicap, she’d be giving Oasis Bloom 9.5kg and Fibrillation 10kg. She meets them at level weights. One Luxbet customer is extremely confident of her success, with a bet of $250,000 at $1.10.

1 – ATLANTIC JEWEL
3 – OASIS BLOOM
6 – AVA’S DELIGHT
5 – BONNE NUIT

Race 5 – GROUP 2 MCEWEN STAKES (1000m)

If Moment of Change runs to his first up performance last preparation, when he finished fourth to Black Caviar, then he’ll be hard to beat here at weight for age. However, he looks rather short at $2.10, and perhaps a case can be made for Platelet at $4. This flying mare hit her straps earlier this year, winning the Robert Sangster Stakes and The Goodwood in Adelaide. She should get a good run behind the speed and can upset the favourite. A case can also be made for Moonee Valley specialists General Truce, Freereturn and Snitzem, and I think I’ll be putting the Moonee Valley specialists on top.

4 – SNITZEM
3 – FREERETURN
8 – PLATELET
1 – MOMENT OF CHANGE

Race 6 – GROUP 2 DATO TAN CHIN NAM STAKES (1600m)

Super Cool beat It’s A Dundeel in the Mitchelton Wines Vase on Cox Plate day last year, and if he runs to that form, he should be hard to beat here. He was brilliant in the Memsie Stakes, and he was so burly that he is sure to have taken improvement. He looks the one to beat and he’s steady at $3. Lidari caught the eye with a strong return at Caulfield, I’m not sure if he’ll get the pace to suit here but who knows how good he may be? Fiorente should have finished closer in the Memsie, and he’s on trial for the Cox Plate. I’m not sure whether he might be looking for further at this stage of his preparation though. Happy Trails beat Green Moon in this race last year, while the rank outsider Hornet’s Nest ($151) creates interest – he was the last horse before Foreteller to beat Puissance de Lune!

8 – SUPER COOL
6 – LIDARI
3 – FIORENTE
10 – BASS STRAIT

Race 7 – JEEP DON’T HOLD BACK HANDICAP (1600m)

1 – CLEAR FOR ACTION
10 – THE GREAT SNOWMAN
5 – MOURINHO
3 – ALPHA PROXIMA

Race 8 – LISTED DRUMMOND GOLF STAKES (1200m)

3 – NEESON
9 – IT IS WRITTEN
7 – ELITE ELLE
4 – LORD OF BRAZIL

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