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Run For The Money: Caulfield Cup Day Edition

October 19, 2012

http://www.justhorseracing.com.au/general-news/run-for-the-money/run-for-the-money-caulfield-cup-day-edition/169669

Andrew Hawkins: Welcome to Run for the Money, your weekly internet-based roundtable discussing the upcoming weekend’s racing! It’s Andrew Hawkins here, joined by our two young guns from last week – Jay Mathieson and Joshua Kayll – as well as a new contributor, Alex Donnelly. Today we’ll be looking at tomorrow’s Caulfield Cup, one of the three big features of the Melbourne spring and a primary lead up to the Melbourne Cup. But first, guys, your thoughts on last weekend’s racing? What about the big shock of Pierro’s defeat by All Too Hard?

Joshua Kayll: Hey boys. Yes, very surprising to see Pierro go down. Nash Rawiller is an excellent rider but that wasn’t his best ride. Surely Pierro isn’t that one-dimensional? I thought the ride was very average. All Too Hard is the only horse I could see beating Pierro if he had an off day and that’s how it panned out. It was still a massive shock to see it happen.

Jay Mathieson: Well, of course, I told everyone last week that All Too Hard was a dead set certainty…hmmm. I love seeing an upset in racing though. I think it’s great for the game, but I’m sure that Gai and Nash wouldn’t think the same! Nash has ridden a couple of shockers in the last few weeks.

Alex Donnelly: Hey lads, great to be a part of this. I was in shock at the 200m when I saw All Too Hard loom up, I still can’t believe it. But Pierro did have a few excuses and he should bounce back in the Cox Plate. Nash didn’t have a good day at all. You could argue he slaughtered two.

AH: I’m guessing you are referring to his ride on More Joyous? Wasn’t one of the best either. He’s a champion jockey but I bet he’d love to have them over again.

JM: I think the 60kg did beat the great mare, but the ride didn’t assist. Nash will bounce back though. He is still a great jockey!

JK: It wasn’t great either, however, I think there wasn’t much he could do there. She was always going to struggle with that big weight but I think we all underestimated her task a little. No doubt Jay, he has ridden some crackers in the past. Hopefully he bounces back on Southern Speed this Saturday.

AD: Burning her up that tough Caulfield hill with 60kg on her back wasn’t the best thing to do, but I was keen on the winner, so no complaints here!

AH: If you were having a bet in the Cox Plate now, who would you be backing?

JK: Pierro, although I am entertaining Shoot Out at big odds.

JM: I think More Joyous at 10-1 is pretty silly so I think she is worth an each way bet. Pierro is also at very backable odds and Ocean Park hasn’t set a foot wrong!

AD: I’m coming from left field here, but I am really liking Proisir. I could look very stupid next weekend but he has no weight, he’ll have longer to get over his last start than the other 3yos and Craig Newitt getting into him from the 600m could be something to behold.

AH: I tend to agree with Josh, I think Shoot Out is at massive odds really. But Pierro is still the one to beat. But we’ll save that discussion for next weekend. Let’s look ahead to the Caulfield Cup. And this is one of the vintage Caulfield Cups, it has to be said. Greg Carpenter compared it to the Caulfield Cups of 1980 (Ming Dynasty beat Hyperno and Kingston Town), 2002 (Northerly beat Fields of Omagh) and 2004 (Elvstroem beat Makybe Diva). I think he’s close to the mark, it’s an exciting and intriguing race. We’ll do a runner by runner preview, but first, what are your thoughts on the overall field? Jay, we’ll start with you.

JM: I think it is a cracking field, the best we have seen in a number of years. The formlines are quite difficult to line up but I think that makes it all the more exciting. I loved Alcopop’s run last start, it was super and currently I’m leaning towards him but I have plenty of respect for most of the field. Americain, Jakkleberry, Voila Ici, Dunaden and of course Glencadam Gold are going to be somewhere in the finish. I think this could go down as one of the great Caulfield Cups of all time!

AH: For sure. What do you think Josh?

JK: Very good field, a big contrast to last year when the field fell away quite noticeably. The barrier draw makes the race even more intriguing, a lot of the spruiked runners are going to have to do some work out wide. Interestingly a lot of the Australian horses seem to have good gates! Could see half a dozen runners winning without any of them really surprising.

AH: Yeah, definitely a big turnaround on last year’s race. Just another beast entirely! Alex?

AD: I think it’s a fantastic race. As Josh and Jay have said, its a great field and there are formlines from everywhere. Group 1 winners from four different continents is a stat that speaks for itself. I think an Australian-trained horse will take the prize here, but definitely not as confident about the Melbourne Cup.

AH: That will be the query, judging all these different formlines. So let’s start at the top, and with 2010 Melbourne Cup winner AMERICAIN. He’s drawn barrier 19, but will come into barrier 16 if the emergencies come out as expected. There’s some query as to whether he actually starts, with trainer Alain de Royer-Dupre and stable representative Stephanie Nigge both saying he won’t take his place if it is too firm. His form this year’s been pretty plain, but he had similar form last year and he arguably should have won the Melbourne Cup. The story goes, he went back to France so he could come back through Werribee quarantine centre – they wanted to maintain a winning formula! It’s definitely proven successful in the past. But can he add the Caulfield Cup to his impressive Australian record, Alex?

AD: No. Simple as that. The weight and gate are against him. Mosse is still trying to find cover at Rosehill, when he had him wide the whole way in a small field in The BMW. With the way Stephanie Nigge is talking, it must be a big query whether he runs because of the track. We’ll find out more later today. But I can’t have him here or in the Melbourne Cup, for that matter.

JK: I agree with Alex. I think he has too much against here and I don’t think he’ll run past them all at Caulfield over 2400m. 3200m is his go. I have a feeling they’ll just scratch him and save him for the Moonee Valley Cup.

JM: I disagree completely with you both! I think he can win, the track is going to be a dead 4 on Saturday morning from all reports so that should worry him. I’ll ignore this talk from the stable, they’re just trying to ruffle features. The form around Joshua Tree is starting to stack up, especially after Joshua Tree won the Canadian International, and I think he is a different horse back with Alain. He carries weight better than almost anything in the field so that doesn’t worry me. His form has been good enough and he loves the big stage with Mr Mosse on. Must include for me!

AH: For mine, I was quite keen on Americain until he drew barrier 19. I’m worried Mosse will keep him wide, which is a death trap around Caulfield. And I don’t think he can win from well back in the field. I agree with Jay, track manager Jason Kerr has said it will be a dead 4 so I reckon he’ll run. But I think he’ll be spot on for the Melbourne Cup, he showed last year he could potentially win with 58kg. I expect him to run boldly without winning. I actually think he’ll beat Dunaden home, which brings us to horse number 2. DUNADEN will jump from the outside, and he is likely to end up a long way back. His form this year has been quite good without winning, and he is a Hong Kong Vase winner. A good track should be fine for him, but I doubt he can win from well back. Jay, what do you think of last year’s Melbourne Cup winner?

JM: He’ll get a lonngggggggggggggggggggggg way back and I don’t think he has the turn of foot to win over the mile and a half. Don’t get me wrong, I have plenty of respect for this fella and his trackwork has been great. I could see him flashing home into the placings but I just don’t think he can win from the barrier. Maybe one for the exotics but, personally, I can’t see him winning.

AD: His form has been solid without spectacular since wining the HK Vase last December. He has seemed to overrace a touch in his runs in Europe. The gate does not help, but he has a great record at the distance. His trackwork has been fantastic from all reports and I can see him flashing late without winning

JK: I think he has been racing well this year, he has performed admirably against top class opposition. Same doubts for him as with Americain, he may have a big task trying to win from well back with the big weight and the bad barrier. However, I think he’ll run a drum without winning. Place hope.

AH: The next runner is another international in JAKKALBERRY. He’s a globetrotter – he’s raced in Italy, the UAE (Dubai), the UK and the USA all in the last 16 months. Jakkalberry’s form looks good on paper – third to Cirrus des Aigles and St Nicholas Abbey in Dubai shapes up particularly well, while his last start win in the inaugural Americain St Leger was strong. The weight may be a concern, but I think he’s drawn well in the middle of the pack – barrier 13, coming into 12 if the emergencies come out. Josh, what are your thoughts?

JK: The thing I like about Jakkalberry is the fact that he’s so adaptable – he races at his best no matter where he ends up. His formlines are pretty decent and I think he’ll run a very forward race.

JM: He’s a big hope but there is always that question mark when they are first up in Australia. I have been following him closely since the Hong Kong Vase where the pace and barrier went against him. Every run since then has been super. I think the draw is fine and he can settle pretty much anywhere. He will find a good spot and certainly is a big chance. Big race jockey Colm O’Donoghue retains the ride and I give him a big hope. Right in this.

AD: I’ll be honest, I haven’t got much of an idea about how he will go. His run in Dubai was great when it was a leader-dominated night. He gets to a handicap here which helps. I only saw the last 400m of the American St Leger and thought it was very soft win. He has won 4 times over 2400m and 7 times on a good track. Colm will be looking to forget his last ride in Australia and make his mark here. I can’t rule him out at all.

AH: So everyone seems a bit wary of Jakkalberry, I agree with Alex though – I hope Colm O’Donoghue’s ride is better than his last effort here. He was one of the three Irish jockeys that set a crazy pace out in front in the Melbourne Cup in 2008. He did do his apprenticeship here though, so I think he’ll be suited just fine. Definitely think Jakkalberry’s a major player. Not sure the same can be said for WINCHESTER, the American import with John Sadler. He’s hit the line nicely at his two starts in Australia to date, but still, he’s been well beaten. He’s coming out of a wide draw, so will have to get well back. I worry he’ll be too far back to make much of an impression. Thoughts, Alex?

AD: I’m really warming to this bloke. I thought he was very good last start hitting the line hard. He will be doing the same here. He can’t win this but is a hell of a hope come the first Tuesday in November

JK: He’s been solid without setting the world on fire so far. I think he is very harshly weighted in comparison to some of these and I can’t see him coming from far back and running over the top of this field. Pass.

JM: He has been okay since arriving at the John Sadler stable. Since last year’s Sword Dancer Stakes in America he hasn’t been at his best. I can’t have him on the back of his last two which were just fair for mine. Not for me.

AH: Fair points. Next up is number 5, last year’s favourite DECEMBER DRAW. He comes into this off two placings in the Underwood Stakes and the Turnbull Stakes, the best lead ups for this. But he remains some query at 2400m. He should get a good run from his middle draw though, which will give him every chance to run the 2400m right out. Jay, can you find a spot for December Draw?

JM: To be honest, no, I can’t. Deserves to be right in the market but I thought he was entitled to hit the line slightly better in the Turnbull after coming off the winner’s heels. Sure, he was warming up, but I think he could have won it. I’m not convinced at the distance either. He certainly will run an honest race but he is one I will risk. I would not be surprised if he gave a big show though.

AD: I think he is well in the weights. He has been looking like he needs further at his last few runs. Seems like Kav has him ready to peak fourth up. He has been running fantastic this time in. Michael Rodd is the best big race rider in the business and I think he is a top hope.

JK: December Draw is racing well this campaign without winning. There seems to be a sense of timing with this bloke. Top run in the Turnbull in my opinion. Think he’ll get a quality run from the gate and run a very good race. He can win!

AH: Looks like we’re split down the middle. I agree with Jay, I can’t have him. I think he’s a massive risk at 2400m and I will be looking elsewhere. Next is VOILA ICI, the striking grey who will be up towards the front along with Glencadam Gold. The striking grey has been so consistent since arriving from Italy, and he seems to keep going and going. But he’s drawn out which may make his task difficult. Josh, do you think he can win?

JK: Oh, he’s a genuine chance alright. He has been excellent since joining Peter Moody’s yard. I really think he would have run well in a Cox Plate. He should give a good sight, but I think the barrier may ruin his chances a little bit unless he gets across to the rail. Can’t rule out, but he may find one or two better here.

AD: This bloke will give something to run down from the front. His runs in Australia have been very good, he cost himself last start with his pre-race antics. He has drawn inside Glencadam Gold but has to contend with a very wide draw here as well. I can’t see him winning but think he could hold on for a place.

JM: Big fan of this fella. The only thing that worries me is the pace I can see elsewhere in the field. Barrier 17 means he will have to work across and he may have a tough time getting the lead. If he does, I think he is a big hope. Drawing inside Glencadam Gold is a big plus though. He will be in it for a very long way and he’s definitely one for the multiples.

AH: I’ll be very interested to see him here. I could see him pinging off the home turn, and I don’t think Glencadam Gold will get his own way in front. Number 7 is last year’s winner, SOUTHERN SPEED. Won the Makybe Diva Stakes before an okay run in the Underwood Stakes, but she was absolutely shocking last start in the Turnbull Stakes. Meets a much stronger field this year and rises in the weights, and she won’t get the same cushy run as last year. I’m not keen on her here. Jay?

JM: I did not like her action in the Turnbull and I simply can’t have the defending champ. Nash Rawiller is a good appointment and her runs before were good enough. But in saying that I can’t have her on the back of her last run. Happy to risk…(he says wiping the egg off his face)…

AH: Don’t worry, I think we all had egg on our face after last week (I did with Shahwardi). Josh, Alex, keen on Southern Speed?

JK: Not very keen, even though she is the reigning champ who has solid weight-for-age form leading into this. She was very good this campaign until her puzzling run in the Turnbull, any excuses? Boss has since jumped off, never a good sign. If you ignore her run last start you’d have to give her an each-way chance however you can’t really back her with any confidence.

AD: She’s a very good horse but I’ve never been a fan of hers. Her form was good until her last start flop. She should get a good run from the gate. On her best form she’s a chance but I can’t have her.

AH: Think we all seem to agree about her, as we probably will about the second American import in the field, SANAGAS. He’s with the maestro Bart Cummings, but I don’t think even Bart could get him to win here. His best form in the United States was in 2400m handicaps, and he has drawn well, but surely he’s not going well enough to win? Alex?

AD: Nope, he can’t win. Next.

AH: Blunt there. Josh, Jay, agree?

JK: Another import. Hasn’t done anything here so far. Don’t really rate American turf form. Has Bart, but really needs to do more to be considered any chance in the Melbourne Cup.

JM: It couldn’t possibly, could it? Bart always scares me though. He will probably run a huge race and start second favourite in the Melbourne Cup and leave us all scratching our heads. I won’t be going anywhere near him here.

AH: From an outsider we go to the favourite in GLENCADAM GOLD. He’s unbeaten in Australia – hard to believe it was only two months ago that he only just beat an average horse in Brian’s Honour. But he’s improved with every start and he was simply outstanding last start in The Metropolitan. Even though he had his own way in front, he still ran a sub-35 second sectional, which is a great feat for a stayer. The second from the outside draw may make it hard for him though, but he remains a clear favourite. Jay, where does he rank in your eyes?

JM: Probably deserves to be favourite but I just don’t see him winning. I think the appointment of Jim Cassidy is genius, I feel bad for Tommy Berry but there is nobody better at controlling the pace than Mr Cassidy – that is, if he gets to the lead. Every race he’s run here in Australia, he’s had it his way. He won’t get that here. It’s his first go on the other leg as well, so I’m going to lay him as I think there are better Europeans in the race. He is just way too short for me.

AD: He’s been dominant in Australia, whatever way you look at it. The Metrop win was something to behold trackside. Honestly, I’m disappointed Tommy Berry didn’t keep the ride. The gate is a massive issue but if he jumps clean he should track Voila Ici across and end up just outside the lead coming out of the first turn. He’s weighted to win. I’ve received word from the stable that he goes even better the Melbourne way of racing. He’s a top chance. Also, don’t forget some outrageous bets some of those in the racing media have made. Mick Sharkie, Richie Callender and Oli Bell are all in trouble if he wins this!

AH: That they are. It could be a day of gloom among the racing media. And Josh?

JK: Doesn’t have much chance of winning this. Sure, he has been impressive in Sydney, but who has he been beating? He’ll have a tough ask from the draw and I can’t see him crossing Voila Ici to reach the lead. I think there are better horses here. Pass.

AH: Wow, big call from Josh – the favourite can’t win! We’ll see how that plays out. Personally, I don’t know how to rank him – I won’t be on him but I can’t dismiss him. I think you’ll have a good idea how he’s going to go as they climb the hill up the back. Next up, MY QUEST FOR PEACE. They were initially aiming at the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe, so you’d have to think he’s well in at the weights here. He is looking a bit more dour at his recent outings, so perhaps he may be looking for further. But he’s drawn perfectly in barrier 2, looks to get the gun run and may prove tough to beat. Josh?

JK: I like My Quest For Peace, he looks to have gate speed and can race handy which is a plus. He has the gun barrier and should be in the first half dozen. The only problem in my eyes, as Andrew has said, is that he may be looking for further now. I thought he looked a little one-paced in the March Stakes last start, but he has a winnable weight and must rate a chance here.

JM: Interesting runner and one I’m still trying to figure out. His previous two runs have been good, especially the Glorious Stakes win, but as you said it seems like he doesn’t have that turn of foot. Looking back at his Hardwicke run you see a number of runners in this race finishing ahead of him. I think he is hard to have. I will leave him out.

AD: I’ve heard big wraps about this bloke. His last two runs in England were very good. But before that he was spanked by 36 lengths by Dunaden & Sea Moon. I don’t know if he has the turn of foot for a Caulfield Cup just from watching replays, but I may be wrong. Melbourne Cup horse for mine.

AH: He did have a ton of excuses in the Hardwicke, so I think you have to draw a line through that run. Same with Jakkalberry in the same race. After I declared Red Cadeaux wouldn’t have the turn of foot to win the Melbourne Cup last year (he almost proved me wrong), I’m reluctant to make that call again. But I do think he’s in with a chance, but will probably improve towards Flemington. Number 11 is the Sydney Cup winner NIWOT, who miraculously made the Caulfield Cup field last year but was deep most of the trip. He has improved since last year, and his runs haven’t been too bad this preparation. But is he good enough to win a Caulfield Cup? I’d probably say no, but stranger things have happened. Some top form analysts give him a real hope. Josh, I know you are a fan of the locals. Do you think Niwot can take this?

JK: He’s been going along his way quietly and resolutely towards the Cups. Think he is a chance here at big odds. His Turnbull run was excellent and he can handle a sustained run. That’s important, as the pressure goes on early in a Caulfield Cup. Didn’t have the best ride last year but he did well to finish so close. May need the one more run, however I think he is a decent place bet.

JM: I’m with Josh. I really love this guy and the barrier I think is perfect for him. I still think that two miles is better for him but he has been warming up nicely. This year, he will get the perfect run with Dirty Dwayne in sensational form. Probably a sneaky one for the multiples but perhaps jump on him now for the Melbourne Cup.

AH: There’s always the runner with the flashing light on their head looking towards the Melbourne Cup. Sounds like you think it might be him! Alex, do you agree with these guys?

AD: I agree that he is a Melbourne Cup horse. He’s been very good in weight for age races this time in, hitting the line tremendously. Gets to a handicap finally. But I think the Melbourne Cup is his race. He’s an out and out stayer for mine. He will hit the line harder than anything in the race.

AH: I reckon he will run a good race, for sure, but as for a victory – it would probably be a surprise. So we go to number 12, the heavily-backed LIGHTS OF HEAVEN. She was the early favourite for last year’s race but her form tapered badly. She bounced back in the winter, winning the Brisbane Cup. But it took her time to find her form again this spring – she finally looked on track again last start. She’s drawn ideally and she should relish the 2400m. What do you think Alex, can she win?

AD: The forgotten runner for mine. She has an amazing record at 2000m and beyond. Peter Moody has kept her fresh for this after finally hitting some form in the Hill Stakes – she was, quite honestly, shocking in her first two this time in. Should get a great run from the gate, she carries no weight at all and can win this. If she does I will proclaim Moody a complete genius.

JK: Agreed with Alex, I have not heard much about her in the press for a while. Despite this, she is $10. I think she is under the odds, however I think she is heading the right way. Her last run in the Hill Stakes wasn’t bad and she looks to be hitting her peak. Will get a good run from the barrier and has the stable jock on board. If she drifts further she is worth a ticket.

JM: Moody said that she is his best chance and she has been well supported since drawing 8 – it looks to be a perfect barrier. Personally I can’t have her on her three runs in this time. She really hasn’t had a good break since the Brisbane carnival and I think that shows a little. Her run in the Hill Stakes was even, but that’s all it was. I’m happy to risk her.

AH: Which leads us to another mare, this time last year’s Epsom Handicap winner SECRET ADMIRER. This is her first time beyond 2040m, but she shapes like she should enjoy it. Still, it’s hard to get a picture of how she’s going from her form. And the step from 1600m to 2400m is massive, although it is not unprecedented – the likes of Might and Power and Cole Diesel have achieved it in the past. Jay, what do you think of her?

JM: Love her dearly but this is another task. Big jump in distance and I just don’t think she can get that far. Great miler but confident that this is beyond her. Pass.

AD: It will be a great training performance from Grahame Begg if she can win this. Brenton Avdulla back on is a positive for mine. She has been looking as if she wants to run over further at her last few outings. Given the fact there should be a solid tempo in the race, she can flash home with some amazing sectionals and cause an upset here.

JK: Look, she is a grand mare and she has been running well of late. However, I think she may have forgotten how to win. I wouldn’t be surprised to see her run a good race, however I think her racing style makes it almost impossible for her to win here.

AH: Next up is the Peter Moody’s third runner SNEAK A PEEK. He has been making good ground at his runs here and has the emerging profile suitable for the Caulfield Cup. Interesting to note, he beat home Jakkalberry and Voila Ici in a Group 2 in Milan last September. Who would have thought all three would be in Melbourne contesting the Caulfield Cup 13 months later. What do you reckon Josh, can he win?

JK: Sneak A Peak is another that is flying under the radar and he is racing in excellent form. He has ran on well at all his starts here and gets in with a good weight. Glen Boss is on. Can race forward or back from the gate. Genuine winning chance.

AD: I think he’s had excuses every start he has had in Australia. He was hitting the line well in the Turnbull after not having much luck in the race. Drawn well and weighted well. Can run a cheeky race here with Group 1 Boss on.

JM: Totally agree with Josh and Alex. He has been pretty good and his run in the Dato was ridiculously good. I give him half a chance, especially if we give Jakkalberry and Voila Ici a big chance! It would probably be unfair not to include him. Probably worth an each way bet at good odds

AH: Definitely reckon he’s hard to assess. Could come out and win easily. So to ALCOPOP. He was one of the final horses to scrape into the field, after his gutsy second to Ocean Park in last week’s Caulfield Stakes. On his prior form you couldn’t have him, but he was so good last week that it’s hard to say he can’t win. Thoughts Jay?

JM: I think he can win this. That is big for me, as he has never been one of mine, but his run behind Ocean Park was too good to overlook. His two runs before that were full of merit if you watch them closely and this just looks perfect for him. Barrier nine is the dream draw and he loves the mile and a half. To be honest Dom Tourneur in a big race is the only slight query, but he’s won at the track and distance which you can’t say for many of them. I can’t find any real faults and I will certainly have something on him at a good price.

JK: I don’t think his form was too bad before his run last start. He has been taken along slowly and he looked like he was going to run into the race at Moonee Valley and prove a real threat before Fruehling skittled him on the corner. He looks to be peaking for this. He was excellent last start. Good gate and gets in lightly. Can’t dismiss.

AD: Can’t win this. His grand final day is Caulfield Guineas day. Look at his record, it’s outstanding on Caulfield Guineas day every year. He could have won a country cup this preparation if he went that way, but yet again they are overreaching.

JK: You’d think Ocean Park or Sincero are slightly above country cup class.

JM: You’re kidding Alex! You like Secret Admirer but don’t like Alcopop. I’ll have $50 with you right now Alcopop beats home your mare. I feel bad though. Actually like taking candy off a baby!

AD: It was a sit and sprint, just like the same race 2 years ago where he beat Whobegotyou home and ran So You Think to 2 lengths. He can’t win a Caulfield Cup, he hasn’t got the class.

AH: Moving on…the Naturalism Stakes has been a shocking form guide to the Caulfield Cup, but FOLDING GEAR will be out to change that. Has always looked like 2400m would suit, but not sure about this class. Alex?

AD: No hope of winning this. He will run well but won’t beat half the field home.

JK: Inclined to agree with Alex here. Like the horse and deserves a run on his good win in the Naturalism, however this is another level here. Really do hope he runs well for connections though.

JM: I don’t think the Naturalism is good enough form going into a Caulfield Cup. Look at the past. Not for me.

AH: So we’re all looking elsewhere. Horse 17 is MOUDRE. He was the last horse to get a spot in the field at the expense of the first emergency Sabrage. Looked awesome first up before a flat run second up in the Turnbull Stakes. I doubt he can win, but he should get a cushy run. Josh?

JK: Good horse Moudre. Barnstorming third first up in the Makybe Diva however he apparently had slight issues after his average run in the Turnbull. He is a grand stayer however I don’t think Caulfield suits and he’ll just be running on nicely behind the placings as a guide to the big one. Pass.

AD: Can’t see him winning this. More hope than Folding Gear, but less than Sanagas.

JM: Always love seeing Kerrin riding for Ciaron but that’s the only thing I love about him. No.

AH: I must say, I’d love to see him win – even if it costs me. And while we’re on the subject, happy 18th birthday to one of Ciaron Maher’s employees, Jacinta Jenkins. I wonder if you can get a good birthday present?

AD: Come on Hawk…

AH: Okay, the final horse safely within the field is ZABEELIONAIRE. Won the South Australian Derby earlier this year, he’s a bit enigmatic but he’s a good horse on his day. He fits the mould of the typical Caulfield Cup winner, and while I think the inside barrier is a horrible draw for him, I still think he has claims. Best roughie in the race for mine. Jay?

JM: I’ve got a mate who is keen on this bloke and his run was a lot better than it looked in the Turnbull. He went super before that in the Underwood. $31 is probably a good price but I’m happy to leave him. If he ran a big race I wouldn’t be surprised.

AD: I like this bloke at an each way ticket. Gets to a trip he has been looking for. Drops to 52kg. Froggy has the option to kick up from the draw if he jumps cleanly and take a good position in running. If he goes back he might need some things to go his way. But four year olds have a ridiculous record in the race and I can’t dismiss him here. I will have something on him.

AH: Agree Alex, 4yos are the ones you want to be on in the Caulfield Cup, especially each way. Can’t let him go around without me. Josh?

JK: I followed this horse before his first start, mainly because he was entered for the Cox Plate as an unraced horse and had a striking name. He has been going better than his form suggests. His Underwood run was excellent and he didn’t have much luck in the Turnbull. I think he’ll be even better suited over two miles, however I think he’ll get a half decent run from the gate and Froggy Newitt is a good engagement. Each-way at odds.

AH: Which brings us to the emergencies. SABRAGE will be hoping to get a run, but I don’t think he did enough last week to suggest he’ll be a chance. Jay?

JM: Love Michael Moroney when he trains a stayer but I will leave this one. Still a 4yo and I’m sure we will see him again.

AD: He has the right trainer in his corner but he’s no hope here even if he gets in.

JK: Sabrage isn’t racing too badly and will stay the trip, however class is a big issue.

AH: The second emergency is GATEWOOD, who was desperately unlucky last week. He’s more likely to go to Geelong, where he will be ridden by Glen Boss.

AD: There’s a black hole in my wallet from this bloke last week. He can win this if he manages to get a run

JM: Would have loved to see this guy go round as I think he would be a red hot show. So unlucky last start and his form in the UK had been superb previously. If he somehow gets a run, I give him a really good chance. But I don’t think he will run.

JK: He won’t be carrying any of mine should he get a run. Geelong Cup is more his go.

AH: But Josh, you don’t think he was unlucky last week? And he gets in with an incredible weight, should he get a run here. Surely a good chance?

AH: He was unlucky but isn’t a Caulfield Cup winning horse.

AH: It’s hard to tell but I reckon he’s good enough to win a Caulfield Cup. I think Geelong will be tough for him, because he’ll meet two horses who could have potentially won the Caulfield Cup in Brigantin and Tac de Boistron. Anyway, the third emergency IBICENCO has been scratched, leaving fourth emergency FICTIONAL ACCOUNT as the horse down the bottom. She’d need a miracle to make the field, and if she did make the field, I think she’d have no hope. I think the Sandown Cup over two miles would be her race. Jay?

JM: It won’t get in. Even if it did, it wouldn’t win.

AD: Finished 10 lengths away from Glencadom Gold in the Metrop. That says it all for me. The Lavazza or the Sandown Cup is her race

JK: I like the mare but this is many legions above her class.

AH: Agreed. Okay, now that we’ve finally reached the end (that was a herculean effort), who do you have as your top four? For me, it’s Jakkalberry on top of Zabeelionaire, who is the best roughie in the race, Lights of Heaven and My Quest For Peace.

AD: December Draw to beat Lights of Heaven, Secret Admirer and Winchester.

JK: December Draw from My Quest For Peace, Sneak A Peak and Niwot.

JM: Alcopop, Jakkalberry, Americain, Sneak a Peak

AH: Wow, an interesting split there. Two with December Draw on top, and then two of us without December Draw in there at all. It looks like we’ll be hanging our hat on his performance.

AH: Time to wrap up, any other bets you will be having on Saturday? I will be having a big bet on Dare To Dream in Sydney, I think he wins on his way to a possible Melbourne Cup spot. And I think HK Derby winner Super Satin is one to watch over in Adelaide. Also, keep a very close eye on Astronomer at Narromine – the subject of a controversial enquiry, he’s being ridden by Matt Cahill again and should just win.

JM: I like a number of things at Caulfield. Villa Splendido looks well placed in the first. I’m keen on Swift Succession at a good price in the Gothic and Lightinthenite looks hard to beat in the Coongy!

JK: I think Extra Zero’s worth an each way bet in the Coongy.

AH: Actually, I’m keen to have something on Waterford Hill in the Coongy. Remember how we were in that pub in Sydney, Alex and Jay, and we watched the last race at Moonee Valley two weeks back. Waterford Hill was poorly ridden, and although he could run in easier races, a crack at this race is justified I reckon.

AD: I like Dare to Dream, he should win that race easily and go on to win the Lexus. King’s Rose looks to be the best placed horse on the day and should win the Tristarc Stakes. I’m a Matty Cahill fan personally and feel he is harshly treated. Yes, he should serve time but not a full 12 months.

AH: If he did pull up the horse – which it looked like he did looking at the footage – then surely 12 months is justified?

AD: Owners are known for doing this, this one’s just been exposed. We have all seen a horse that’s been blatantly pulled up before and Matty was just the one who got pinched. Time should be served, yes, but not 12 months. I’d give him 6 months with a year suspended if that happens.

AH: If it wasn’t so blatant, I’d agree with you Alex. But given it was so obvious, I just don’t think he’s been harshly treated. Any more than 12 months? Perhaps. But it’s an argument for another time. That wraps up Run For The Money this week, thanks for your time guys. It’s been a tough slog. Can’t wait to get back on to chat about Cox Plate day next week! Until then, best of luck with your bets on Caulfield Cup day!

One Comment leave one →
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