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19/05/2012 – Doomben Cup Day Preview

May 19, 2012

This is different for me – all Saturday meetings this year bar one have been at awkward times, starting very early in the morning. Until April, it started around 1am. From April onwards, it started around 3am. This has been because I’ve been in Ireland or the United Kingdom for most of these racedays.

But this weekend, I am in Singapore and so today’s races are actually at a pretty convenient time.

Today, I’m going to have a quick look at Doomben as well as the Scone Guineas and the Andrew Ramsden Stakes from Flemington. Most of my efforts this weekend will be invested in the mammoth meeting from Singapore tomorrow – a huge 11 race card.

Here are my thoughts on the Australian races:

DOOMBEN

Group 1 Doomben Cup (2000m)

I do like this race every year for some reason, even though it’s not always a top race. However, there is enough talent in the race this year to suggest it can be a form race for the future. It’s hard to go past MANIGHAR – I think, if form is anything to go by, he just wins. He was the first horse to complete the Australian Cup, Ranvet Stakes and The BMW treble!! Even his run in the Queen Elizabeth Stakes was a top effort. I know it is hard to accept this is the same Manighar who looked a non-winner for Luca Cumani, but he does look the one. The only query is if he has gone over the top, and all reports from trackwork suggest this isn’t the case. Top chance. SCENIC SHOT may be past it but he has an affinity for the Doomben 2000m course, just like he has an affinity for the Flemington 2000m course. He has won two from three at this course and distance – and both were Doomben Cups! He can make it a hat-trick here, and while he is getting on in age I’m wary of him again. He’s a danger. SHEZ SINSATIONAL has been the top weight for age horse in New Zealand this season, as well as stretching out to win the Auckland Cup. She was good in winning the Hollindale Stakes two weeks ago and she’ll be going close. And FORETELLER has looked like winning a good race in recent times. I don’t know if it will be here, he might need to get to a handicap, but I’ll be watching him closely.

1 – MANIGHAR
2 – SCENIC SHOT
10 – SHEZ SINSATIONAL
6 – FORETELLER

Also on the card…

The Group 3 Doomben Roses (2000m) is the premier lead up to the Queensland Oaks. Ethereal, The Jewel, Cinque Cento, Gaze, Heavenly Glow and Scarlett Lady have been some of the notable winners in recent years, while Eskimo Queen ran an incredible race before she took out the Oaks in 2007. Pretty Pins was absolutely terrible last start, beaten 14 lengths on a heavy track – she’d previously been two from two on heavy going. That said, if the real Pretty Pins turns up, she’s a big chance – at much better odds, too. Also, across from New Zealand, I’m expecting a big run from Quintessential. Keep an eye on her.

The Group 3 BRC Sprint (1350m) is the next step for the handicappers on the way to the Stradbroke Handicap. Smokin’ Joey has to be one of the most improved gallopers going around. He’s been racing in this class since his two year old days but he’s just racing in such great heart these days. I’m expecting to see a bold race from him. If there’s one at odds, maybe Gundy Son.

The Group 3 Fred Best Classic (1350m) is a lead up for the Stradbroke Handicap or the Queensland Guineas for the three year olds. I’m keen on Punch On, the Magic Millions Guineas winner who was very good first up. She’s a big chance. At odds, I’ll be keen to see how Shanghai Bund goes. The horse that ran fourth in two NZ Group 1 races was beaten in a Class 2 at the Sunshine Coast and a Class 3 at Ipswich. But he ran well at Doomben last year so I’ll be interested to see if he can find some of his best form.

The Group 3 Glenlogan Park Stakes (1350m) is the fillies and mares equivalent of the prior two races. I’m on Wealth Princess in the Stradbroke so I’m hoping she’ll win here. Given the amount of money I’ve lost on Parables, I’m very much hoping she doesn’t blouse me!

SCONE

Inglis 3yo Guineas (1400m)

This is a good race, with it being the richest country race in Australia. PAMPELONNE looks hard to beat. He won the Gosford Guineas and I think he’ll win better races than this. He’s a deserved favourite. COLORADO CLAIRE won the Phar Lap Stakes and looks well placed here. Looks the only one who can beat the favourite. UPBEAT and MICK’S MANTLE look the next best, but the top two look well clear of the rest.

1 – PAMPELONNE
11 – COLORADO CLAIRE
2 – UPBEAT
14 – MICK’S MANTLE

FLEMINGTON

Listed Andrew Ramsden Stakes (3200m)

This is one of only two 3200m races run at Flemington each year – the other being the world’s most famous handicap, the Melbourne Cup. Last year, Niwot won before going on to run in the Melbourne Cup, finishing eighth. He also won the Sydney Cup. It is hard to envisage any of these horses going on to those heights. I thought STREAKY FELLA was good enough in the Warrnambool Cup to tip him here. The 3200m is a query but I am happy to have him on top. ALMODOVAR is always improving for Peter Moody and looks the only one to have enough upside to one day get to the Cups. DAME CLAIRE was good two weeks ago and if she races handy again is a likely chance, while I think SAVAGING could go alright back on the flat.

5 – STREAKY FELLA
2 – ALMODOVAR
3 – DAME CLAIRE
7 – SAVAGING

One Comment leave one →
  1. June 7, 2012 11:13 am

    great preview guys.this article really help me think where to put my bet and for future reference too

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