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21/04/2012 – Doncaster Mile Day Preview

April 21, 2012

Doncaster Mile Day is always a brilliant card. It’s just a shame that it seems to be prone to stormy weather.

It’s a tough meeting to decipher this year and I’m not overly confident about playing today. We’ll see. Perhaps just stick to the Doncaster!

Here are my thoughts on today’s racecard:

Race 1 – Listed Fernhill Handicap (1600m)

First chance for the two year olds to get out to a mile. Think the market pretty much has it right. DEAR DEMI was very good on Golden Slipper day when she charged home over 1400m. The step up to 1600m suits and she should win. RED HOT CHILLIES down the bottom has not finished better than sixth but a lot of good judges have an opinion of her. The trip should suit and she has a chance. ROWIE was good on debut and quickly steps up to the 1600m, while HONORIUS probably wants the 1600m now. But Dear Demi looks the one.

1 – DEAR DEMI
11 – RED HOT CHILLIES
2 – ROWIE
6 – HONORIUS

Race 2 – Listed Keith Mackay Quality (1200m)

Wow, 12 months ago my best of the day won in this race – a gutsy filly called Streama, who goes around favourite in the ATC Oaks today over twice the trip! I’m surprised Gai’s running Driefontein here. She was great in the Slipper after she missed the kick, but 60.5kg on a bog track is a big ask of a two year old filly. I’m going to have something on MEDUSA’S MISS. Bolted in at big odds on debut. Well bred, being a half sister to Mummify. Chance. DRIEFONTEIN goes in on class but she’s not a betting proposition. MEIDUNG probably didn’t measure up the way they hoped but this looks a good race for her, while AGUEDA is on the quick back up which is a good sign.

5 – MEDUSA’S MISS
1 – DRIEFONTEIN
3 – MEIDUNG
2 – AGUEDA

Race 3 – The Keystone Group Handicap (1400m)

Back to benchmark racing on a Saturday…oh well, it had to happen sooner or later. It’s actually a good race this, a clash between potential Stradbroke contenders Lightinthenite and Riva de Lago. LIGHTINTHENITE is unbeaten first up and he can maintain that record here. I think he’ll be more suited in this race here. RIVA DE LAGO is a promising horse but a lot can go wrong for him. He needs plenty to go write here to win. Outside of these two, maybe the mares SKYERUSH and QUIDNUNC. But it looks a race in two.

6 – LIGHTINTHENITE
9 – RIVA DE LAGO
1 – SKYERUSH
5 – QUIDNUNC

Race 4 – Listed South Pacific Classic (1400m)

A fascinating race, if nothing else, with the unbeaten horse of Gai’s in the field. You also have the previously unbeaten Sacred Pins coming off a flop last start and a host of other horses who’ve shown potential throughout their careers. I’m actually going to go outside the top two and go with MAHISARA, who has needed the step up in trip. He’s value. SACRED PINS will improve as the distances increase, so 1400m should be no worry. LANDING will be out to maintain his unbeaten record while AERONAUTICAL finds a drop in class here.

2 – MAHISARA
5 – SACRED PINS
7 – LANDING
4 – AERONAUTICAL

Race 5 – Group 1 ATC Oaks (2400m)

I’ve said it already and I’ll say it again – what was looking one of the highlights of the autumn now looks an absolute shocker. A month ago, it looked like being Mosheen vs Silent Achiever vs Streama. Now, only the latter lines up. She is heads and shoulders above them classwise, so it depends if she’ll stay the trip. Actually, to be honest, I don’t think she needs to stay the trip – she should be too good. STREAMA on top. For second, go with the Tasmanian Oaks winner ROCK ROBSTER (yep, that’s how ordinary this race is). She could get out in front and keep rolling. FULL OF SPIRIT is the fresh horse on the scene, while THY may be strongest at the finish. But if Streama can’t win this, then she’s definitely a few grades below her spring form.

1 – STREAMA
3 – ROCK ROBSTER
2 – FULL OF SPIRIT
5 – THY

Race 6 – Listed Japan Racing Association Plate (2000m)

It’s not often you get a run as fourth emergency, but Star Thoroughbreds will be happy Kinnersley snuck into the field. I reckon last year’s winner can win again, although he’s not racing as well. But he gets the wet track he so desires and he carries less weight than last year, so I’ll be on HAWK ISLAND. SOUTHERN SKYE looks like he’s returning to form and this is a suitable race. He’ll be in the mix. WESTERN SYMBOL won fairly well on Golden Slipper day. He’s coming through the grades. And who knows which HERCULIAN PRINCE will turn up, but if it is the Group 1 winner, he’ll give a sight.

1 – HAWK ISLAND
13 – SOUTHERN SKYE
9 – WESTERN SYMBOL
2 – HERCULIAN PRINCE

Race 7 – Group 1 Doncaster Mile (1600m)

Click here to read my preview of the Doncaster Mile

Race 8 – Group 1 The Galaxy (1100m)

Tough sprint. I think ELITE FALLS might be the one here. Was outstanding in the Galaxy before running okay in the Challenge Stakes. Should get pace on here to suit and I can see her zipping home. This has been her goal all spring. Chance. I’ve been a BORDER REBEL fan for a while and I think he’s been forgotten somewhat. Remember, on his day, he was a brilliant sprinter. If the true Border Rebel turns up, expect a big run. THANKGODYOU’REHERE was good first up in this race last year. On a similar path and should be respected. And WINTER KING goes well on a wet track, he’s in with an each way show. But as always, The Galaxy is tough.

11 – ELITE FALLS
7 – BORDER REBEL
3 – THANKGODYOU’REHERE
10 – WINTER KING

Race 9 – TAB Sportsbet Sprint (1200m)

Another benchmark race to end the day. It’s open. I remember WITHOUT COMPROMISE winning at Randwick in the mud by eight or nine lengths. This was four or five years ago, but still, first up – he’s a chance. He’s at good odds too. KIMBERLEY KID grows another leg on the wet track, and although he was poor first up, he’ll improve rapidly. MISS MARX has been a bit disappointing in recent times, hopefully she can run well, while STARTREUSSE was massive first up. Wet track’s a query. But go wide in the final leg of the quaddie!

4 – WITHOUT COMPROMISE
9 – KIMBERLEY KID
10 – MISS MARX
16 – STARTREUSSE

Good luck with all your investments today, and may you back a winner!

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