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Vinery Stud Stakes Preview – Truly A Two Horse Race

April 7, 2012

The Group 1 Vinery Stud Stakes (2000m), registered as the Storm Queen Stakes, is traditionally the lead up to the Group 1 Australian Oaks (2400m) in two weeks time.

In the last thirty years, it has been won by some top fillies, like English Wonder, Research, Slight Chance, Northwood Plume, Saleous, Danendri, Champagne, Savannah Success, Hill of Grace, Shower of Roses, Special Harmony, Hollow Bullet, Serenade Rose and Miss Finland.

In all likelihood, the winner of this year’s edition will join some of the more notable victors.

It looks a match race between two outstanding fillies – Mosheen and Streama.

Perhaps it should be noted that their opposition is not of the strongest quality, therefore elevating the nature of their clash.

Still, it looks a race to savour!

Just Horse Racing’s Andrew Hawkins has looked at the eight runners for the 2012 running of the Vinery Stud Stakes and has compiled this preview:

1. MOSHEEN (7)

A marvellous filly who has been amazing this preparation. Not many horses could run second in a Golden Slipper at two, win the VRC Oaks by nine lengths and then win both the Australian Guineas and the Randwick Guineas against the boys – and remember, she’s still not considered the best filly of her generation! She’s a star. It is very hard to see her being beaten here, and I’d be shocked if she went under. On form, she should just win. The only query is if she’s over the top. But her last run seemed to suggest she still had improvement in her, so I’d be expecting a win from her.

2. STREAMA (3)

Another good filly, although she hasn’t quite been so good in the autumn as she was in the spring. She did win the Flight Stakes by six lengths in the spring though! This preparation, she was beaten by Sea Siren first up in the Light Fingers Stakes before turning the tables on that filly in the Surround Stakes. She then went to the Coolmore Classic where she eased considerably and finished a slightly flat fifth. Should be ready to peak here but the distance remains a query. I’d prefer to be on Mosheen but Streama should be running second.

3. APPEARANCE (6)

Darley filly trained by Guy Walter, who also has Streama here. She’s been going well recently, running fourth to Phar Lap Stakes winner Colorado Claire before finishing fourth behind her stablemate in the Surround Stakes. She then came out and narrowly won the Keith Nolan Classic, beating a number of the fillies she meets here. Not many Commands do well past a mile, although there are some notable exceptions – Purple and Lamasery spring to mind. Still, with the top fillies in the race, she’ll need to be at her best to nab a place.

4. SHE GOES TO RIO (8)

Consistent filly yet to miss a top two placing. She was surprisingly beaten first up this campaign before winning at Canterbury. She then won the Canberra Guineas, beating Detours, before just missing in the Keith Nolan Classic. Her breeding suggests she should enjoy the 2000m trip, and she looks to have the credentials to make her mark. Top contender – for third.

5. ALIYANA TILDE (5)

A winner of two from nine, she was third in the Keith Nolan Classic at her last start. Before that, she had shown nothing to suggest she was up to this grade. Being by Snitzel, the distance is likely to be a real query. She could run a place, but really, she looks to have a lot against her and I’ll be overlooking her.

6. THY (1)

This O’Reilly filly has been spruiked by quite a few people in her five starts to date. I don’t know if it is the O’Reilly factor, the Peter Moody factor, or what it is, but I’ve heard her tipped a fair few times as a good upcoming galloper. But she has still only won once. Personally, I don’t quite see what all the fuss is about. I doubt the form from the races she’s been running in. I’m looking elsewhere – not that there are many places I can look!

7. PLUMM (2)

Lightly raced filly trained by Grahame Begg. She placed in two maidens before stepping up to the Keith Nolan Classic last start. She finished a credible fifth. By Encosta De Lago out of a Military Plume mare, she should relish the step up in trip. She won’t be a match for the top two but she could run third. Place chance.

8. PEDRINATE (4)

Kembla-trained maiden who is yet to win or place from seven starts. Her best effort was probably five starts back when she finished a shade under five lengths from Hobartville Stakes winner Wild and Proud in a Wyong maiden, giving him 5.5kg. Last start, she finished last in the Keith Nolan Classic on her home track. Don’t know really why I’m writing such an extensive comment – she has no chance whatsoever. The $301 currently offered by the TAB is seriously under the odds.

SUMMARY

I’m going to be boring here and pretty much stick with the market, with one exception. How sad. It’s quite funny – usually, the Keith Nolan is a strong form race. This year, it is extremely unlikely the winner or the runner up will come from that race. The other form is just too strong. MOSHEEN has taken on the boys at her last two starts and beaten them comfortably. She’ll be winning here. STREAMA is going alright, the 2000m is a bit of a query but even on class she should run top two. SHE GOES TO RIO is a couple of pegs below the top two but she’s going well enough to run a bold race, while I reckon the surprise packet will be PLUMM – still a maiden but she is going well and the 2000m should suit her ideally. But really, it does look a two horse race between the top two.

NUMBERS

1 – MOSHEEN
2 – STREAMA
4 – SHE GOES TO RIO
7 – PLUMM

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