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UPDATED – A current picture of the big three (Caulfield Cup, Cox Plate, Melbourne Cup): likely runners

October 4, 2011

Today’s third declarations for the Caulfield Cup and Cox Plate and Melbourne Cup first declarations have not changed the dynamics of the orders of entry overly much.

I’ve updated the fields to remove those no longer in contention.

CAULFIELD CUP

1. December Draw
2. Midas Touch
My Kingdom of Fife
3. Shamrocker
4. Absolutely
5. Lights of Heaven
6. Mighty High
7. Drunken Sailor
8. Glass Harmonium
9. Manighar
10. Shootoff
11. Unusual Suspect
12. Alcopop
Linton
13. Lucas Cranach
Mourayan
14. Precedence
15. Hawk Island
16. At First Sight
17. Sahara Sun
18. Stand to Gain
====
19. Domesky/Master O’Reilly/Saptapadi/The Verminator/Tullamore
20. Domesky/Master O’Reilly/Saptapadi/The Verminator/Tullamore
21. Domesky/Master O’Reilly/Saptapadi/The Verminator/Tullamore
22. Domesky/Master O’Reilly/Saptapadi/The Verminator/Tullamore
23. Domesky/Master O’Reilly/Saptapadi/The Verminator/Tullamore

I’m still expecting this race to fall away.

I’m confident enough that My Kingdom of Fife, Linton and Mourayan won’t run following comments from connections.

There are still queries over Lights of Heaven, Glass Harmonium, Lucas Cranach, Sahara Sun and Stand to Gain, meaning the likes of Saptapadi and Tullamore can be reasonably expected to gain runs.

Dream Pedlar, Lamasery, Niwot and Southern Speed are on the line below and with attrition may still gain a run.

The winners of the Yalumba Stakes, Toorak Handicap and Herbert Power Handicap are exempt from ballot for the Caulfield Cup.

COX PLATE

A Cox Plate field is unavailable, purely because no provisional order of entry has been released. We have been informed this will be released shortly.

MELBOURNE  CUP

1. Jukebox Jury
2. Americain
Descarado
3. Lion Tamer
4. Shamrocker
5. Midas Touch
My Kingdom of Fife
6. Mighty High
7. Absolutely
Dreamaway
8. Manighar
9. Glass Harmonium
10. Unusual Suspect
11. Drunken Sailor
12. Dunaden
Linton
13. Precedence
14. Mourayan
15. Alcopop
Herculian Prince
16. Red Cadeaux
17. Fox Hunt
18. Lucas Cranach
19. Hawk Island
Pinker Pinker
20. Illustrious Blue
21. Lost in the Moment
22. Illo
23. Modun
24. At First Sight
==============
25. Stand To Gain
26. Booming
27. Older Than Time
Tactic
28. Sahara Sun
29. The Verminator
30. December Draw

I have made the assumption that Descarado, Dreamaway, Herculian Prince, Linton, Pinker Pinker and Tactic will not run for a variety of reasons.

They may come back in at some stage, but the information I have is that these horses are unlikely to run.

Penalties and ballot exempt races are going to be absolutely crucial in the coming weeks.

This will be updated following Saturday’s Caulfield Guineas meeting.

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