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A current picture of the big three (Caulfield Cup, Cox Plate, Melbourne Cup): likely runners

October 3, 2011

Tomorrow, third declarations are taken for the Caulfield Cup and Cox Plate, while first declarations are taken for the Melbourne Cup.

After that time, we will have a better idea of who is heading towards these races.

However, having scoured the latest news, here is how I believe the races would look if acceptances were taken today.

CAULFIELD CUP

Lion Tamer
Rekindled Interest
1. December Draw
Americain
2. Midas Touch
My Kingdom of Fife
3. Shamrocker
4. Absolutely
Harris Tweed
King’s Rose
5. Lights of Heaven
6. Mighty High
7. Drunken Sailor
Dunaden
8. Glass Harmonium
9. Manighar
Playing God
Scarlett Lady
10. Shootoff
11. Unusual Suspect
12. Alcopop
Linton
13. Lucas Cranach
Mourayan
14. Precedence
15. Hawk Island
Illo
16. At First Sight
17. Booming
18. Older Than Time
===========
19. Sahara Sun
20. Stand to Gain
21. Domesky/Master O’Reilly/Praecido/Saptapadi/Trusting/Tullamore (all on same line)

*pending penalties for The Verminator, Dream Pedlar, Mourayan

I’m expecting this race to fall away in the next week or so, with a number of these currently queries.

These include Lights of Heaven, Glass Harmonium, Unusual Suspect, Alcopop, Lucas Cranach, Booming and Older Than Time.

COX PLATE

A Cox Plate field is unavailable, purely because no provisional order of entry has been released. We have been informed this will be released following third declarations tomorrow.

MELBOURNE  CUP

1. Jukebox Jury
2. Americain
Dangerous Midge
Descarado
3. Lion Tamer
4. Shamrocker
Littorio
Cavalryman
5. Midas Touch
My Kingdom of Fife
Alandi
6. Mighty High
Brazilian Pulse
Harris Tweed
7. Absolutely
Meeznah
Playing God
Dreamaway
8. Manighar
9. Glass Harmonium
10. Unusual Suspect
Scarlett Lady
Once Were Wild
11. Drunken Sailor
12. Dunaden
Linton
13. Precedence
14. Alcopop
15. Mourayan
Herculian Prince
16. Red Cadeaux
17. Fox Hunt
18. Lucas Cranach
19. Hawk Island
Vigor
Pinker Pinker
20. Illustrious Blue
21. Lost in the Moment
Sense of Purpose
22. Illo
23. Modun
24. At First Sight
===========
25. Stand to Gain
26. Booming
Shadows in the Sun
Bob Le Beau
27. Older Than Time
Tactic
28. Sahara Sun
29. December Draw
30. Praecido

*pending penalties for The Verminator, Mourayan, Dream Pedlar

Incredibly, in the Melbourne Cup, only five of the horses currently in the top 24 started their careers in the southern hemisphere.

These are Lion Tamer, Shamrocker, Absolutely, Precedence and Alcopop.

Also, rather surprisingly, December Draw is not yet in the top 24.

He may need to win the Caulfield Cup to guarantee a Melbourne Cup start – a concern for those backing him for the latter.

I will update these upon declarations tomorrow.

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