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Melbourne Cup pre-nomination odds comparison: mares emerge as favourites

September 1, 2011

With the release of nominations today, I thought it would be good to look at how the markets had changed between November and August.

The first market, released by Betstar last November, saw Maluckyday a clearcut favourite at $15.

Incredibly, his price has hardly shifted since that time, with TAB Sportsbet still offering $15.

Betstar have him $13.

However, his position at the head of the market has been usurped by a set of former good three year old fillies.

Now four year old mares, the likes of Lights of Heaven, Shamrocker, Scarlett Lady and Absolutely are dominant at the top of the market.

Others highly ranked include VRC Derby winner Lion Tamer, imports December Draw and My Kingdom of Fife, and last year’s Melbourne Cup winner Americain.

The biggest mover since TAB Sportsbet markets opened on August 4 has unquestionably been German import Lucas Cranach, who opened $101 but has been backed into $26.

At longer odds, support has come for Dunaden ($101 into $61) and Domesky ($201 to $81).

On Betfair, Scarlett Lady and Shamrocker hold favouritism, while Lion Tamer has been well supported.

Melbourne Cup nominations come out today, after which time we will provide an even greater odds comparison and analysis.

Here is an odds comparison from November to August:

 

 

 

 

 


Betstar 15/11/2010 Shortest Price 31/01/2011 Shortest Price 1/05/2011 Shortest Price
24/07/2011

TAB Sportsbet
04/08/2011

TAB Sportsbet
31/08/2011
Betstar
31/08/2011
Betfair
31/08/2011
Lights of Heaven

26 26
10
11 15 22
Shamrocker 41 41 16 14
10
12 11 17.5
Scarlett Lady (NZ)


15
10
13 13 16
Lion Tamer (NZ) 21 21 26 26
13
15 15 19.5
Maluckyday 15 15 14 12
15
15 13 20
December Draw


21
15
19 21 23
Absolutely

26 26
21
21 21 50
Americain (FR) 26 21 17 15
17
21 15 22
My Kingdom of Fife

26 26
17
21 26 48
Descarado 34 31 26 26
21
26 34 75
Glass Harmonium
34 51 26
26
26 41 50
Lucas Cranach




101
26 26 30
Precedence 51 51 41 34
21
26 26 34
Base

34 34
35
35 41 50
Dangerous Midge (GB) 81 81 81 61
35
35 51
Efficient 34 34 34 51
35
35 51 300
Harris Tweed (NZ) 41 41 51 41
21
35 41 75
Hawk Island 201 201 81 81
26
35 51 95
Heidilicious


41
35
35 51 250
Illo




35
35 41 110
Linton 17 17 18 21
35
35 21 46
Manighar (GB) 67 67 67 51
35
35 34 55
Mighty High (HK)


34
26
35 34 65
Pinker Pinker 201 201 67 67
35
35 51
Rekindled Interest 67 51 61 51
35
35 34
Tullamore 301 301 301 31
21
35 34 55
Booming (NZ) 151 151 151 151
35
41 51 90
Drunken Sailor (GB) 41 41 51 31
51
41 67 50
Older Than Time

67 67
35
41 51 130
Absolutelyawesome 151 151 34 34
51
51 41 220
Alcopop 41 41 51 41
51
51 41 65
Brazilian Pulse 34 34 41 41
21
51 51 180
Dreamaway

81 81
35
51 51 120
Harris Tweed (GB)


130
51
51 41 140
King Diamond

81 101
35
51 51 300
King’s Rose

67 67
51
51 51
Laristan 151 151 81 81
35
51 81 150
Mourayan 81 81 81 81
51
51 67 190
Niwot


71
35
51 51 100
Once Were Wild 41 41 41 67
51
51 67 110
Right Of Refusal

81 34
51
51 81 90
Shootoff 81 81 81 67
21
51 51 280
Stand To Gain

51 81
51
51 81 200
Unusual Suspect




51
51 67
Vigor


101
51
51 101 330
Dunaden


220
101
61 51 55
Black and Bent




71
71 81 100
C’est La Guerre 101 101 101 101
71
71 151 580
Fast Clip

101 101
71
71 101
Fawkner


81
71
71 81
Foreteller




51
71 67 290
Galizani

101 81
71
71 101 140
I’m Imposing 67 67 81 51
71
71 151 210
Innocent Lady




71
71 101
Ironstein


201
71
71 201
King Gladiator

81 101
71
71 101 200
Macedonian 51 51 61 67
51
71 101 180
Midas Touch

41 41
35
71 81 100
Paddy O’Reilly




71
71 81
Playing God

101 101
71
71 67 300
Red Ruler (NZ) 201 201 201 201
71
71 81
Rusticated




71
71 101
Showcause (NZ)
51 81 81
71
71 101 150
Sincero




71
71 81
Syreon

151 151
71
71 101
Bauer (GB) 81 81 81 81
71
81 81 170
Domesky 67 67 101 81
201
81 81
Studley Park
101 41 61
101
81 81 160
Allied Powers




101
101 101
Almodovar

101 101
101
101 101 260
Altius 41 41 51 51
101
101 101 200
Anudjawun 201 201 201 170
101
101 101 250
At First Sight
41 51 51
101
101 67 140
Blackie

81 81
101
101 101 210
Bright Horizon




71
101 101
Exceptionally 41 41 51 51
101
101 81 90
Fanjura 201 201 201 201
101
101 201
Folding Gear

101 101
101
101 101
Herculian Prince 51 51 51 61
51
101 81 120
Light Brigade

67 67
101
101 101
Littorio 201 201 201 201
101
101 201
Mirjulisa Lass

41 41
101
101 81 1000
Praecido 26 26 41 34
101
101 81 85
Red Cadeaux (UK)


21
101
101 81 140
Red Colossus 101 101 101 101
101
101 81
Rothera 101 101 81 81
101
101 151
Secret Admirer 41 41 51 41
101
101 101
Spechenka
151 151 81
101
101 201 310
Tactic

41 41
71
101 101 170
The Chevron 81 81 151 151
101
101 151
The Verminator

101 101
101
101 201 170
Tinseltown




101
101 101
Titch (NZ) 151 151 201 200
101
101 151 230
Trusting


35
101
101 101
Bridgestone




151
126 101
Above Average 81 81 151 151
151
151 201
Anacheeva 51 51 67 67
51
151 81 300
Elusive King

151 151
151
151 151
Flat Chat




151
151 151
Gigino 151 151 151 101
151
151 151
Hissing Sid


600
151
151 201 300
Home on a Wing






151 41
Illustrious Blue (GB) 101 101 151 81
151
151 151 250
Kittens 51 51 61 81
151
151 101
London Stripe




101
151 101
Lucky Eighty Eight




151
151 81
Platinum Passion 101 101 101 101
151
151 201
Rebel Soldier

150 170
101
151 81 200
Sahara Sun (Chi)


67
151
151 101 310
Saptapadi




301
151 67 120
Shewan

201 201
201
151 101
Tanby


151
151
151 101 140
The Big Steel




151
151 151
Torio’s Quest




151
151 101
Valdemoro 81 81 201 67
151
151 101
Vesper 81 81 101 51
151
151 101 220
Zack Hall




151
151 151
Akinoshirabe




301
201 301
Akzar

61 61
201
201 151
Budai

67 67
26
201 101 230
Colden’s Choice




201
201 201
Cosmonaut 101 101 101 101
201
201 101
Dream Pedlar




201
201 201
Eruptious


201
301
201 201 200
Excluded




201
201 151 750
Extra Zero 301 301 301 301
201
201 151
Gopana




201
201 201
Green Moon




201
201 151 170
Ishant 301 301 301 301
201
201 301
Kim Divine




201
201 301
Lamasery




151
201 151
Lopov




201
201 301
Marden




301
201 201
Midnight Martini


340
201
201 201 600
Modun




301
201 201
My Bentley 301 301 301 301
201
201 301
My Scotsgrey




301
201 201
Niblick 41 41 81 67
201
201 201 600
Noble Park


67
51
201 201
Olympic Win

151 151
201
201 301
Pressday 101 101 151 126
201
201 201
Shadowofexcellence 41 41 41 51
201
201 201 400
Shadows In The Sun 81 81 81 81


201
300
Southern Speed

34 34
35
201 151 280
Sweetest Melody




201
201 201
Swift Judgement




201
201 301
Agent Bauer
201 201 201
301
301 301
Alandi (IRE) 101 51 101 101
301
301 301 200
Allanthus




301
301 301
Amber Grey




301
301 301
Bellabaci




301
301 301
Black Ninja




301
301 301
Boom N Zoom




301
301 301
Brilliant Light




301
301 301
Builder O’Reilly




301
301 301
Chartreux 201 201 201 201
301
301 301
Compound




301
301 301
Crocodile Canyon




301
301 301
Danaupair Starlet




301
301 201
Dead End




301
301 151
Diyaraka




151
301 201
Don Carlos


61
301
301 201 200
Don’t Put It There




301
301 301
Dublin Darlin


600
301
301 301 1000
Eau De Dali




301
301 301
Elms




301
301 301
Finiguerra




301
301 301
Foreverclever




301
301 301
Foxham




301
301 301
Go With The Flo




301
301 301
Guest Wing
81 101 101
301
301 201
Heez Born Lucky




301
301 301
Hidden Gem




201
301 201
Hussonator




301
301 301
Irish Golfer




301
301 301
Kim Warrior




301
301 301
Lalla Rookh




301
301 301
Langridge Street




301
301 301
Lethal Arrow




301
301 301
Leveche




301
301 301
Lordoftheparrots




301
301 301
Madang Flyer




301
301 67
Many Stars




301
301 301
Maraaseem 151 151 151 151
301
301 301
Master O’Reilly 301 301 301 301
301
301 301
Mushatta




301
301 301
Never Forget




301
301 301
Nextanix




301
301 301
Pegembak




301
301 301
Penquil




301
301 301
Perfect Pecs 101 101 151 151
301
301 301
Pierremont Express




301
301 301
Pinnacles




301
301 301
Planet Purple




301
301 301
Raffaello




301
301 301
Red Eye Special




301
301 201
Rialya




301
301 301
Riceman




301
301 301
Roi d’ Jeu


101
301
301 101
Sadalbari




301
301 301
Sean Baile Mor




301
301 301
Seguro




301
301 301
September Morn




301
301 301
Sheahan




301
301 201
Smokin’ Joey 41 41 71 81
301
301 101
Stratocracy




301
301 201
Sunset Cafe




301
301 301
Surface Tension




301
301 201
Take Out




301
301 301
Take The Moment




301
301 301
Tamanu Park




301
301 101
Tara Man




301
301 301
Teardrop Rock




301
301 301
Telesmon




301
301 301
Tom’s Rocket




301
301 201
Toorak Toff 101 101 101 101
301
301 301
Train Crusher




301
301 301
Uchimura




301
301 301
Viking Legend




301
301 201
Warrior Within




301
301 301
Western Symbol




301
301 301
Windsurfer




301
301 301
Yamavite




301
301 301
Zagreb




301
301 301
Zara Dancer




301
301 201
Zauberin 151 151 151 151
301
301 301
Zenawomann




301
301 301
Ace Acosta 151 151 201 201





Afsare


280




1000
Age of Reason


1000




670
Ain’tnofallenstar 151 151 81 81





Ajhar 201 201 201 201





Allez Wonder 201







Alma’s Fury 151 51 151 151



151
Almindoro 51 41 61 81





Ambers Waltz 101 101 151 151





Apprehend 201 201 201 201





Avienus 101 101 151 151





Backgammon 67 67 81 81





Baron 67 67 81 81



101
Beat Black




201



Becerra 101 101 101 51





Becqu Adoree 151 151 151 151





Berlioz 301 301 301 251



301
Best Choice 101 101 201 201





Bid Spotter

201 201





Big Storm

201 201





Billson 81 81 101 101





Bint Maher 201 201 201 201





Bob Le Beau


310




1000
Bolton 101 101 201 201



201
Bone of Contention


430




420
Brampton 101 101 201 201





Brayroan




101



Brigantin (Fr)


51




160
Brightnight 81 81 81 101




300
Buccellati 201 201 101 101





Bullbars 101 101 51 81




1000
Cabeza
81 201 201



201
Calvados Blues








1000
Campanologist 51 51 67 67





Cape Blanco


120




600
Capecover 301 301 301 251



301
Captain Sonador 101 101 101 101





Castle Heights (NZ)

101 101





Cavalryman


1000




670
Cedarberg 81 67 41 41
35



Chiberta King








1000
Chock A Block


1000




1000
Circle Of Power 301 301 301 301





Claremont


1000




1000
Con Artist


1000




1000
Cosmo Meadow

70 51





Count Encosta 101 101 101 101





Crabs 301 301 301 301





Crafty Irna

101 101





Crawfish 101 101 201 201





Cuban Sunday

151 151





Culminate 201 201 201 201





Dance Of The Ocean 101 101 201 201





Dariana 67 67 71 41



67
Darley Sun


1000




1000
Dating

260 151




1000
Dealer Principal 151 151 151 151





Debussy


1000




1000
Demerit 101 101 301 301





Detox


300




1000
Digital Fortress 41 41 41 51



101
Divorces 51 51 61 67





Dizlago 51 51 61 61





Do Ra Mi

81 101




580
Doctor Fremantle 151 151 151 151





Doubtful Jack 101 101 201 201





Drumbeats 151 151 151 151





Eastern Aria (UAE) 51 51 51 41





Echoes Of Heaven 201 201 81 81



101 330
Eclair Surprise 34 34 34 34




270
Eishin Flash


130




1000
Emblem Of Liberty 301 301 301 301





Emirates Champion


630




1000
Empires Choice 101 101 101 101





Endor


51





Epic Dragon 101 101 126 126





Eraset 81 81 201 201





Erewhon 34 34 51 41




1000
Faint Perfume 67 67 71 51





Fairfield Flame 101 101 151 151





Fairygem 301 301 301 301





Fame And Glory (Ire)


34





Famous Choice 201 201 201 201





Fibrillation 101 101 51 51




1000
Firebolt 101 101 101 101





Fiumicino 301 301 301 301





Forgettable (Jpn)


81





Fox Hunt








320
Free Agent (UK)


101





Frozone 301 301 301 301





Gail

101 101





Gallant Lady 201 201 201 201





Get Up Jude 301 301 301 301





Ghostmilk 101 101 101 101





Ginga Dude (NZ) 41 41 71 101





Giresun 81 81 101 101





Gitano Hernando (SAF)


41




300
Glens Diamond (UK)


41





Goldstone 101 101 101 101





Grand Ducal 101 101 101 81





Guiseppina (NZ)

81





Guns Blazing 101 101 151 151





Guyno

201 201





Happy Trails


81





Hastein 201 201 201 201





He’s Remarkable

101 101





Heartsareforlove 101 101 151 101





Helmet


101





Hinchinbrook 151 151 151 151





Hiphopopotamus


201





Hiruno D’Amour


100




250
Historian (NZ)

81 81





Holberg (UAE) 41 41 41 41




160
Hollowlea 81 81 101 101





Howdiddydoit 151 151 151 151





Howmuchmylove 101 101 101 101





Hume 101 101 101 101





I Think I Do 101 101 81 81




650
I Walk The Line 41 41 41 151





Ilovethiscity 201 201 201 151





Innocent Gamble 101 101 201 201





Integration


81





Intencion 151 151 151 201





Interlocking 201 201 201 151





Irel

201 201





Irian


81




300
Jaguar Mail (JPN) 41 41 51 41




1000
Jalsah 201 201 201 201





Jessicabeel 151 151 151 151





Jimmy Choux (NZ)

34 51




140
Joe Blow 301 301 301 301





Kasbah Bliss


530




270
Katie Lee (NZ) 81 81 81 81





Keep The Peace (NZ) 41 41 51 51



201
Keepin’ The Dream 301 301 301 301





Kerchings 101 101 101 101





Kibbutz 301 301 301 301





King Of Mountains 301 301 301 301





King Top Gun




101


250
Kite Wood


1000




1000
Kudakulari 101 101 101 101





Kutchinsky 81 81 101 81



101 570
La De Two


1000




1000
La Rocket 201 201 201 201





Landlocked 101 101 201 201





Landlord


101





Largo Lad 301 301 301 301





Launay 81 81 201 201





Leica Ding

100 67




100
Leica Falcon 301 301 301 301





Leica Larrikin 101 101 201 101



81
Levi’s Choice 301 301 301 301





Little Surfer Girl 151 151 151 151





Lords Ransom 201 201 201 201





Lost In The Moment








65
Lovemelikearock 151 151 151 151





Mackadoo (NZ) 51 51 51 51





Makani Bisty




71

301 1000
Marheta 101 101 151 151





Martial Art


201





Martial Law 201 201 201 201





Masquerader 81 81 201 201





Mastery (UAE)
51 67 51



67 190
Maules Creek

151 151





Meiner Kitz

110 41
71


300
Melted 101 101 201 201





Meredith 101 101 301 301





Metal Bender 81 81 81 81





Mikhail Glinka








1000
Miles Above 201 201 201 201





Milestone 201 201 201 201





Miss Darcey 301 301 301 301





Miss Keepsake 151 151 151 151





Miss Maren 151 151 201 201





Missing In Action 301 301 301 301





Moatize 301 301 301 301





Module




101

301
Monaco Consul 41
160 67




1000
Montahlia 301 301 301 301





Monterosso


560




1000
More Strawberries 81 81 101 101





Moudre 21 21 23 26
35


340
Mount Athos (UK)


81




500
Moyenne Corniche








90
Mr Bisset 101 101 201 201





Mr Chard 101 101 101 101





Mr Charlie 34 34 71 41




600
Mr Edison 151 151 151 151





Mr Medici (HK) 101 101 101 101





Muchos Respectos 151 151 201 201





Muir 201 201 67 67



101 250
Muirfield


81





Namura Crescent


110




1000
Needs Further

81 81





No Evidence Needed 101 101 101 101





No Jurisdiction 301 301 301 301





No Wine No Song 301 301 301 301





O’Reilly’s Prize


67




1000
Ocean Dream 201 201 201 201





Oken Bruce Lee

90 34




1000
On The Level (NZ)

81 81





Opinion Poll (UAE)

67 51



26 330
Orfevre


1000




1000
Originate 301 301 301 301





Overturn


51




630
Peck


67




660
Peligroso


1000




1000
Pitt Street 201 201 201 201





Placement 51 41 41 51





Precious Lorraine 51 51 51 81





Prizefighting


1000




1000
Profound Beauty 41 67 71 67





Pureness 151 151 151 141





Purple 101 101 101 101





Quarterbar 81 71 71 71




1000
Queen’s Fashion 301 301 301 301





Quest for Peace


1000




120
Quick Wit


1000




1000
Raihana 101 101 201 201





Rainbow Styling 201 201 201 201





Raspberries

151 151





Rebel Raider 67

81
71


1000
Recoup De Fortune 301 301 301 301





Redwood

67 67





Reem 51 51 81 81





Response 151 151 201 201





Retrieve 34 34 41 51




600
Reuben Percival


81



81 250
Rewilding (UAE)


34





Right Fong 201 201 201 201





Ringa Ringa Rosie 101 101 201 201



201
Rite Of Passage (IRE) 34 34 41 41




140
Rock Classic 81 81 101 101





Rock Kingdom 151 151 151 151





Rockferry


101





Rockstardom 101 101 201 201





Rose Kingdom


250




460
Rose Of Peace 67 67 67 67





Rose Of Scotland 151 151 151 151





Run For Levi 67 67 101 101





Run For Naara 151 151 201 201





Rundle 41 41 41 34





Sabotage


1000




1000
Sacred Choice 81 81 67 67





Saddle The Stars 81 71 71 71





Saddler’s Story

151 151





Saint Encosta 101 101 101 101





Sainthood 301 301 301 301



301
Salinas 301 301 301 301





Saneyev 151 151 151 151





Sans Frontieres (GB) 26 26 34 26



41 400
Sarrsar


1000




1000
Sasa 67 67 81 81





Sayahailmary 151 151 101 101





Scotland The Brave 101 101 151 151





Scouting Wide 301 301 301 301





Sculptor 301 301 301 301





Sea Galleon 151 151 151 151





Sea Lord 151 151 151 151





Sense Of Purpose (IRE)


67



41 420
Servant 67 67 201 201





Shamanova (Fr)


51




200
Shamoline Warrior 41 41 67 41




1000
Sherpa Tenzing 101 101 81 81





Shez Sinsational (NZ)


31




320
Shezaten 81 81 101 101





Shocking 26 26 17 19




330
Shoot Higher


81





Shoot Out 51 51 67 51




500
Shylight

81 81





Silent Surround 301 301 301 301





Simon De Montfort


520




1000
Sirmione 301 301 301 301





Sistine Angel 81 81 201 101





Skilled 67 67 81 81





Skorost 201 201 201 201





Slow The Flow 151 151 151 151





Small Minds 151 151 151 151





Snapy Halo 201 201 201 201





Sniper’s Bullet 201 201 201 201





Snow Alert 101 101 201 201





So You Think
31 35 26




150
Solid Billing

67 67



67 660
Spacecraft 51 51 71 51



201
Speed Gifted 151 151 201 201





Speed Of Dark 301 301 301 301





Squamosa 81 81 81 81





St Nicholas Abbey


310




1000
Star Of Octagonal 101 101 201 201





Star Ripper 301 301 301 301





Sterling Prince (NZ) 301 301 301 301





Stillman 301 301 301 301





Stole

330 650




1000
Sussuro 81 81 101 101





Sworn to Secrecy

67 67





Tactician




151

51 200
Tagus 151 151 201 201





The Embassy 101 101 101 101





The Hombre 81 81 101 101





The Miniver Rose 101 101 301 301





The Ruffian 151 151 201 201





Tobique 67 67 67 67





Tokai Trick (JPN) 151 151 151 81





Token Of Honour 67 67 81 151





Too Deadly 67 67 101 81





Top Drop 151 151 151 101





Trader


151





Trailblazer




201



Tres Rock Danon (Fr)

81 41





Triple Elegance
151 151 81





Triple Honour 101 101 201 151





Triumphant Choice 151 151 151 201





Tromso 101 101 101 151





Tucuman


560




500
Ulundi

81 301





Under The Eiffel
101 101 81




1000
Upon 81 81 151 101





Varenna Miss 41 41 51 101





Viking Hero 151 151 151 151





Vintedge

101 151





Vivid Vixen 101 101 101 101





Vosne Romanee (NZ) 101 101 101 101





Wall Street (NZ) 301 301 301 101



81
Wave Dancing

51 301





We Can Say It Now (NZ) 151 151 201 51





We’re Gonna Rock 101 101 151 201





Wealth Princess

270 151





Weighted

51 151




1000
Whispering Gallery (UAE) 67 67 67 41




140
White Pilgrim (JPN) 151 151 151 61





White Universe 81 81 81 151





Who’s Ready 151 151 201 81





Willow Creek 101 101 101 201





Woorim 81 81 101 101





Work The Room 81 81 61 101





Yosei 41 41 67 101





Yulalona


67




760
Zaamore 151 151 151 151





Zabrasive


101




1000
Zahar


201





Zantelagh 101 101 126 101





Zavite 301 301 81 81



81
Zipping 51 51 67 51




1000
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