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If the Caulfield Cup were to be run today, who would get a run?

August 30, 2011

The Caulfield Cup weights, released today, have thrown up some interesting questions regarding the likely quality of this year’s field.

The first order of entry will not be released until after first declarations next Tuesday, but an interim order of entry shows that much of the depth near the top may be lost from the race.

The order of entry is determined by the disparity between a horse’s allocated weight and the benchmark weight for their age and sex.

The lesser the disparity, the higher up the order a horse will be.

Currently, there are a number of horses at 4.5kg below the benchmark weight, so I have taken the top 20 horses in the interim order.

A quick analysis shows that 10 of these 20 horses are unlikely to run in the Caulfield Cup.

Americain (Cox Plate)
Dangerous Midge (won’t come to Australia)
Efficient (Cox Plate?)
Descarado (Cox Plate)
Meiner Kitz (won’t come to Australia)
Alandi
Lion Tamer (Cox Plate)
Midas Touch
My Kingdom of Fife (Cox Plate)
Rebel Raider (retired?)
Shamrocker
Harris Tweed NZ
Harris Tweed GB (unlikely to come to Australia)
Littorio
Mighty High
Anacheeva
Absolutely
Brazilian Pulse (Cox Plate?)
King’s Rose
Lights of Heaven

If the Caulfield Cup was to be run today, the field would look something like this (once again, there are 19 here instead of 18):

Alandi
Midas Touch
Shamrocker
Harris Tweed NZ
Littorio
Mighty High
Anacheeva
Absolutely
King’s Rose
Lights of Heaven
Drunken Sailor
Dunaden
Glass Harmonium
Maluckyday
Manighar
Unusual Suspect
Once Were Wild
Dreamaway
Scarlett Lady

While it would not be a bad field, the fact that Alandi would be topweight – despite his terrible form here – leaves questions to be answered.

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