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Andrew’s Selections – 21/05/2011

May 21, 2011

Just had another look through today’s fields, and I think the strong message today is go with value.

It always seems to be the way to go with the Brisbane winter carnival, so if you can find the value, you will always make a profit!

Not sure if all my tips are value – but the last one definitely is, and I reckon I’ll be called crazy because of it! Scroll down to read further.

DOOMBEN R4 #7 SCARLETT LADY win

I don’t know why, but the Doomben Roses is one of my favourite races each year. I’ve always had a real soft spot for the race, and this year is no exception. I expect Scarlett Lady to be winning here on her way to bigger and better things. Has not been beaten this prep, and her last win against the mares was fantastic. She seems to have improved throughout the preparation, which is always a good thing. Go girl!!!

DOOMBEN R7 #7 GLASS HARMONIUM win

My Kingdom of Fife has been very good to me this preparation but I had to go with Glass Harmonium, seeing as I tipped him for the race when you could still get $61 about him – that lasted about 24 hours. His first up run at 1800m was very good and he can only improve. Has very solid Group 1 form over in England and I’d be surprised if he didn’t run top two again. Both he and My Kingdom of Fife can measure up in good races – not sure about the Cox Plate but definitely the Caulfield Cup and Melbourne Cup. Shoot Out is probably the best horse in the race, he’s been a touch disappointing this prep though. He was slightly unlucky last start though. Might take a trifecta with those three (Glass Harmonium, My Kingdom of Fife, Shoot Out) too, might add in Scenic Shot and/or Shadows in the Sun.

FLEMINGTON R6 #6 BECQU ADOREE win

This mare probably hasn’t lived up to expectations for OTI Racing but she ran incredibly well last start. She made a lot of ground up in a race where that seemed hard to achieve. I think she’s been crying out for this sort of trip, and she gets her chance to win today. If she doesn’t win or run an extremely good race, then I’m sacking her for life. The only other chance in my eyes is Niwot. But I’m happy to stick with Becqu Adoree.

ROSEHILL R1 #7 RASTEAU win

The Hawkesbury Guineas looks the strongest formline here, and for that reason I’m going with Rasteau. He seems to be over the odds. Given the fact he is yet to win on a wet track, yet the moment he got on to a dead track, he thrived, he looks suited by the dead track today. He’s well bred (Redoute’s Choice out of Group 2 winner La Sizeranne) and he’ll appreciate further in time. I think he’ll be a nice 2000m horse. But down in the weights I’m expecting a big run. And yes, he is a Kiwi horse – but I can bag the Kiwis occasionally. Check out what I say for the McKell Cup!

ROSEHILL R6 #3 NEWPORT each way

I’m waiting for everyone to call me crazy, and I’m sure it will happen sooner or later. But the thing is, over a long period of time, he’s probably the best 2400m horse in the race. He ran a 5L sixth in The BMW on a wet track, and he hates it wet. His other two runs at the Rosehill 2400m have produced a win (in what I reckon is one of the most memorable races I’ve seen at Rosehill, Cold Start led by 30L mid race and was still leading with 50m to go) and a second to Zavite in this race four years ago. He gets a dry track. But for me, the most telling factor is that last week, over 1300m (yes, that isn’t a typo), he actually showed a desire to race, something he hadn’t shown probably since the winter carnival last year. He finished only 6.7L behind Jerezana. And he was hitting the line strongly. He normally produces his best at his fourth run from a spell, but Paul Perry knows what he is doing. Look, my top selection is Ironstein, but he hasn’t won a race this prep. This is probably his chance, but at the stupid odds, I’m going to go Newport each way. By the way, everyone knows I’m a sucker for Kiwi horses. Indikator is a wet track 2200m specialist, he’ll struggle on the firmer going at 2400m. And Roi d’Jeu is probably in the second or third tier Kiwi stayers. He’s a season away from being at his best in my opinion. I reckon they should be avoided here.

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