Skip to content

Hawk’s Arlington Million Preview and Selections

August 17, 2014

We’re privileged to be trackside in Chicago for what promises to be an interesting day of racing – a horse racing Ryder Cup of sorts, with the Americans hosting the Europeans.

By the end of the day, expect to have some clues for the Caulfield Cup, Melbourne Cup and Cox Plate, as well as some horses bound for Hong Kong in December.

I’ve previewed the four international races briefly. Hopefully we can find a winner as we tackle American racing – which, to be honest, I find the toughest of all jurisdictions to understand. Perhaps we might have a better insight after today…

LISTED AMERICAN ST LEGER (1 11/16m – a.2700m)

This race has been upgraded to black type status this year, only two years after it was initiated. Australian Thoroughbred Bloodstock have won both runnings of the race, with subsequent Melbourne Cup third Jakkalberry in 2012 before DANDINO’s win last year. Dandino, of course, went on to finish a barnstorming second to Fawkner in the Caulfield Cup before a terrific fifth in Fiorente’s Melbourne Cup.

He has been dreadful in two runs this year – well, his Hardwicke Stakes run wasn’t too bad, but his effort at Newmarket last time out was woeful. Still, if he returns anywhere near his best, he should give these a drubbing. He’s the best of what looks a far superior European bunch here, and he can book his ticket to Melbourne.

If the Europeans are to be defeated, I think it will come from last year’s runner-up SUNTRACER. He has not won in almost two years, but his fast-finishing effort for third in the Stars and Stripes behind fellow runner THE PIZZA MAN off a soft tempo was enough to suggest he can threaten here.

Of the others, keep an eye on HAVANA BEAT – this is the sort of race the enigmatic galloper’s been looking for – while Coolmore’s EYE OF THE STORM is coming off a short back-up by European standards after winning the Ballyroan Stakes at Leopardstown 10 days ago.

2 – DANDINO
11 – SUNTRACER
7 – HAVANA BEAT
9 – EYE OF THE STORM

GRADE 1 SECRETARIAT STAKES (1 1/4m – a.2000m)

It would be a shock if the now half-Australian owned ADELAIDE did not win here. His formlines through Eagle Top look vastly superior here, while it’s arguable he wasn’t at his best in the Belmont Derby when just edged out by Mr Speaker. Fourth-placed Gailo Chop was hugely impressive in winning a Group 2 at Deauville in France a couple of days back, so the form has been franked. This shapes as an easier race and I think he should win here as he heads for the Cox Plate.

DIVINE OATH, to my eye, looks the best of the locals. He’s very lightly raced and is continuing to improve each start, and he won the American Derby over this course and distance last start, showing a terrific turn of foot off a hectic tempo to win comfortably. A repeat off a likely slower tempo, which may prove more suitable, would see him go close.

SHELDON was fifth behind Mr Speaker and Adelaide in the Belmont Derby, when he was closest at the finish. He had a few traffic problems, which may be his problem here again, but I’d expect him to run well.

TOURIST is the local fancy, and he’s likely to get things his own way up in front, but I’m not sure how his form stacks up and happy to take him on. Next best, HIGHBALL.

6 – ADELAIDE
7 – DIVINE OATH
5 – SHELDON
9 – TOURIST

GRADE 1 BEVERLY D (1 3/16m – a.1900m)

It’s an open race, but I do think the three main chances pick themselves.

JUST THE JUDGE looks the one to beat on her best European form. Last year’s Irish 1000 Guineas winner has been good in two performances behind Thistle Bird recently, in the Princess Elizabeth Stakes at Epsom and the Pretty Polly Stakes at The Curragh. She’s a ridiculous price in Europe given she’s likely to find this race quite suitable. Really fancy her.

STEPHANIE’S KITTEN is the best of the locals for mine, with three runs under her belt she looks ready to produce. She finished strongly for second behind SOMALI LEMONADE in the Diana at Saratoga last start, and with a slightly quicker tempo here, she should be in the firing line.

I think EURO CHARLINE is some chance, but I think she may not have the tactical speed and the turn of foot necessary for American racing. She’ll be up near the leaders, but I think she may be overcome late – especially stepping up in trip.

Next best TANNERY.

1 – JUST THE JUDGE
5 – STEPHANIE’S KITTEN
2 – EURO CHARLINE
6 – TANNERY

GRADE 1 ARLINGTON MILLION (1 1/4m – a.2000m)

A small but highly competitive field takes on one of America’s better turf races – an oxymoron, given the state of American turf racing, but still…

It’s hard for me to oppose SMOKING SUN here. I saw him in Singapore last start, when he was beaten by a horse I’m very familiar with in Dan Excel. That day, Dan Excel had the perfect run behind Tokei Halo, who set a cracking tempo, and it was hard for anything to make ground to defeat the first couple. It’s likely to set up differently here, and I think Smoking Sun can settle closer and unleash his terrific turn-of-foot.

SIDE GLANCE is probably second on the list of the world’s stalwart globetrotters these days, behind Red Cadeaux. And it is not as though Side Glance is a prolific winner – his only win outside the United Kingdom was the Mackinnon Stakes at Flemington last year – but he always seems to pop up for thirds, fourths, fifths, enough to pay for his next trip. He was third here last year, and is coming off a third in the United Nations at Monmouth Park. Likely to be up on the speed, and depending on how much he is pestered by HARDEST CORE, he could prove a tough cookie to run down.

Last year’s winner REAL SOLUTION – who won the race after The Apache was disqualified – is coming into this race in much better form than last year. He is a last-start Grade 1 winner on Belmont Stakes day, taking out the Manhattan Stakes, and has had two months off since then. He did finish five lengths behind MAGICIAN in the Breeders’ Cup Turf, but I doubt a mile and a half is his distance and I think he looks a place (or a show) chance here.

Next best Magician, who is awfully short in European markets and looks no value whatsoever.

2 – SMOKING SUN
7 – SIDE GLANCE
6 – REAL SOLUTION
3 – MAGICIAN

Hawk’s 2014 Royal Ascot – Day Five Preview and Selections

June 21, 2014

Just like that, Royal Ascot has come to its final day, ever so quickly.

Only posting a quick preview with my selections today, as the main focus is on Sha Tin tomorrow as the season winds down. Nevertheless, I hope we can find a winner today to add to what has been a profitable week.

LISTED CHESHAM STAKES (7f)

TOSCANINI caught the eye duelling with Kool Kompany to the line at Naas last time out, and despite Kool Kompany’s failure in the Coventry Stakes, I reckon Toscanini can step up here.

CORDERO obviously has to be respected, first time out for American trainer Wesley Ward – already successful this week with Hootenanny.

DICK WHITTINGTON deserves favouritism but given how Ballydoyle’s juveniles have been going, I’d probably steer clear.

Next best JUSTICE WELL.

12 – TOSCANINI
2 – CORDERO
4 – DICK WHITTINGTON
8 – JUSTICE WELL

DUKE OF EDINBURGH STAKES (1m 4f)

There were reports earlier today that Australian buyers were swirling around the lightly raced ARAB SPRING, a winner of all three starts this season. I’m not sure if he’s the right horse for Australia, but he looks the right horse for this race and have to have him on top.

HAMELIN was good on his seasonal debut and looks bound to head higher in the ratings, while CONTINUUM and LAHAAG – out of form and at big odds but did finish fifth to Opinion in this race last year – are other chances.

1 – ARAB SPRING
13 – HAMELIN
10 – CONTINUUM
12 – LAHAAG

GROUP 2 HARDWICKE STAKES (1m 4f)

The hype seems to centre around one time favourite for last year’s Derby TELESCOPE and last year’s King Edward VII Stakes winner HILLSTAR, but I have a preference for two horses who made the trip out to Australia last year.

I loved the return of last year’s Wolferton Handicap winner FORGOTTEN VOICE in the Aston Park Stakes behind Mount Athos, where he found the line powerfully. He may be a nine-year-old now, but he’s racing as well as ever and I’m expecting a strong performance.

The black stunner DANDINO is also a strong chance. This is his first run since he was injured the day before the Hong Kong Vase, but his Caulfield Cup second to Fawkner is good enough for this, as is his second last year to Thomas Chippendale. It’s no secret the Cups will be his aim again.

Telescope and Hillstar are both chances, with a slight preference to the former, while PETHER’S MOON is in good form.

5 – FORGOTTEN VOICE
2 – DANDINO
10 – TELESCOPE
6 – HILLSTAR

GROUP 1 DIAMOND JUBILEE STAKES (6f)

A slightly subpar Diamond Jubilee Stakes for mine, but there still has to be a winner.

And I can’t see why that couldn’t be GORDON LORD BYRON, who beat SLADE POWER by three lengths in the Sprint Cup. He finished fourth in this race last year and, coming off a successful Australian raid, he can salute here. Perhaps that shows my views on the field that a horse who was easily beaten by Lankan Rupee could win.

The most interesting runner is ALJAMAAHEER, who was a top class miler now attempting his hand over sprint journeys. Will be improved for his third in the Abernant Stakes.

Slade Power is the favourite and is aiming to give Ed Lynam a third win this week and the sprint double after Sole Power’s King’s Stand Stakes win. He’s some chance.

At odds, next best MONTIRIDGE, another who has switched back to sprinting after forging a career as a miler.

5 – GORDON LORD BYRON
1 – ALJAMAAHEER
11 – SLADE POWER
9 – MONTIRIDGE

WOKINGHAM STAKES (6f)

It’s a bit of a lottery, the Wokingham, and have looked to the bottom where SEEKING MAGIC strikes me as a horse with a great chance. Loved his run in the Epsom Dash, where he finished off powerfully. Have to give him a chance here.

ROCKY GROUND and BACCARAT were others to jump off the page, and while SECRET ASSET is hopelessly out of form, a return to his form of two years ago – where he finished third in the Krisflyer Sprint – would see him very attractively handicapped here.

24 – SEEKING MAGIC
4 – ROCKY GROUND
8 – BACCARAT
27 – SECRET ASSET

QUEEN ALEXANDRA STAKES (2m 5f 159y)

The final race of the carnival, where we’ll side with the very lightly raced BRASS RING. Brings some solid form into the race, the only real query is the trip.

TIGER CLIFF has not been disgraced in races like the Yorkshire Cup, and strikes a much easier field here. Will relish the trip too.

EL SALVADOR and ROYAL IRISH HUSSAR best of the rest.

14 – BRASS RING
11 – TIGER CLIFF
4 – EL SALVADOR
16 – ROYAL IRISH HUSSAR

Hawk’s 2014 Royal Ascot – Day Four Preview and Selections

June 20, 2014

Another mixed day, highlighted (for us, anyway) by Missunited’s third in the Ascot Gold Cup at 80/1. We struck the first four in the race too, which paid handily thanks to the present of the gutsy mare – who, admittedly, had everything to suit too.

Now we’re up to Day 4, where we might be able to catch a couple of breaks at odds. It looks a fascinating day on paper, and should set it up nicely for a big final day.

Good luck!

GROUP 3 ALBANY STAKES (6f)

Watching the videos of these fillies, two clearly stood out.

BITTER LAKE looked a ready-made racehorse on debut, such a professional, while PATIENCE ALEXANDER found the line strongly to beat Tiggy Wiggy, who franked the form when finding only Anthem Alexander too good in the Queen Mary Stakes.

Happy to have them on top of SHOWCARD, who fought back strongly last start, and OSAILA, who was no match on debut but can perform admirably again for the on-fire Al Shaqab Racing.

3 – BITTER LAKE
16 – PATIENCE ALEXANDER
21 – SHOWCARD
15 – OSAILA

LISTED WOLFERTON HANDICAP (1m 2f)

This race has produced Melbourne visitors the last few years, including the likes of Lost In The Moment, Gatewood and Forgotten Voice. This year, the visitor will be CAFE SOCIETY, except it looks like it will be a permanent visit as he joins the stable of Gai Waterhouse.

Cafe Society will be Waterhouse’s second Royal Ascot runner after her top sprinter Bentley Biscuit, and he’s definitely in with a show.

However, even if he has lost all form, I can’t believe the price around about WIGMORE HALL. Michael Bell’s galloper may be a light of other days, when he managed to run third in the Dubai Duty Free among other top races worldwide. Still, he’s now down to a mark which surely should allow him to get back into the winner’s circle. Happy to take the 20/1 about him.

Other chances are the Queen’s BOLD SNIPER, who is still fairly unexposed, and 2012 Tercentenary Stakes winner ENERGIZER, who has only had two runs back from a mandatory ban.

8 – WIGMORE HALL
16 – CAFE SOCIETY
14 – BOLD SNIPER
11 – ENERGIZER

GROUP 2 KING EDWARD VII STAKES (1m 4f)

Can ADELAIDE add to the Australiana theme for Ballydoyle’s three-year-olds this season after Australia’s Derby success?

He’s some chance, but too short for mine. I’d prefer to be on EAGLE TOP, who motored to the line to win a lesser race on debut. Probably needed more to suit last start, but fully expect to see him in the firing line here if he runs up to his debut effort.

SNOW SKY was in the mix for the Derby after winning the Lingfield Derby Trial but he suffered a setback which rulled him out. Should relish the trip and reckon he’ll be around the mark.

As stated already, ADELAIDE’s some chance, while it is hard to line up the form of the unbeaten Italian three-year-old DYLAN MOUTH.

4 – EAGLE TOP
9 – SNOW SKY
2 – ADELAIDE
1 – DYLAN MOUTH

GROUP 1 CORONATION STAKES (1m)

An open feature for the three-year-old fillies with no Classic winner here this time.

MY TITANIA looms as the one they have to beat, but the Sea The Stars filly is making her seasonal reappearance so comes in at something of a disadvantage.

I think she can be beaten by TAPESTRY, Ballydoyle’s runner. She finished a distant last behind Miss France in the 1000 Guineas as favourite, but it looks wise to rule a line through the run and judge her on her previous efforts, which would see her go close.

RIZEENA, too, is another one right in the mix. Seventh in the Guineas, she continued to improve last season as it wore on so I wouldn’t be surprised if she is far improved here, but with more improvement yet to come.

Next best KIYOSHI.

12 – TAPESTRY
7 – MY TITANIA
9 – RIZEENA
3 – KIYOSHI

LISTED QUEEN’S VASE (2m)

An uninspiring edition of the Queen’s Vase, which was downgraded this year from a Group 3 – which looks questionable after the last two winners, Leading Light and Estimate, ran 1-2 in the Ascot Gold Cup!

Went with MONTALY, for no other reason than he looks a plugger who will find the step up in trip to his liking.

HARTNELL did beat him by 10 lengths over 1m 2f, while MARZOCCO looks to have plenty of improvement in him. Both are questionable at the trip – I’d think Hartnell is better but Marzocco may appreciate the trip more.

Next best CENTURY.

10 – MONTALY
5 – HARTNELL
8 – MARZOCCO
3 – CENTURY

BUCKINGHAM PALACE STAKES (7f)

An open race with plenty of chances.

It’s a shame that Neil Callan, who has ridden the last two winners of the race, isn’t riding today. Instead, he’s in Hong Kong preparing for Sunday.

I think the lightly raced WATCHABLE could prove one to watch here. He’s clearly improving and he looms as a chance of a low enough mark.

Depending on which ONE WORD MORE turns up, he could be a chance – of some concern, though, is that he doesn’t seem to fire at Ascot. Still, wouldn’t be surprised if he runs alright with a run under his belt.

At massive odds, could see DEAUVILLE PRINCE in the mix – a three-length fourth to Soft Falling Rain at Meydan last year doesn’t look too bad for a horse off his mark.

The favourite RUSSIAN REALM is next best.

17 – WATCHABLE
20 – ONE WORD MORE
19 – DEAUVILLE PRINCE
16 – RUSSIAN REALM

Hawk’s 2014 Royal Ascot – Day Three Preview and Selections

June 19, 2014

A bit of a mixed day yesterday, but hopefully we can have some more luck on Ladies’ Day at Royal Ascot!

Today’s been a bit rushed in terms of a write up, so I’ve only given a quick preview along with my selections. Good luck if you are playing today.

GROUP 2 NORFOLK STAKES (5f)

As has been the case all week, two-year-old form has continued to baffle me, but I do think THE GREAT WAR should just about win and he’s a price that reflects that. He looks headed for better things. BAITHA ALGA best of the rest.

8 – THE GREAT WAR
2 – BAITHA ALGA
6 – MUKHMAL
7 – SNAP SHOTS

GROUP 3 TERCENTENARY STAKES (1m 2f)

I know there’s a big buzz around for CANNOCK CHASE, but I’m looking to bet around him. He beat absolutely nothing, but I loved the style of MUTAKAYYEF’s maiden win and with that confidence booster, the penny may have dropped. Happy to back him at 6/1 or so. OBLITERATOR clearly didn’t handle the going in the Irish 2000 Guineas and I’m expecting big improvement.

4 – MUTAKAYYEF
5 – OBLITERATOR
3 – CLOUDSCAPE
2 – CANNOCK CHASE

GROUP 2 RIBBLESDALE STAKES (1m 4f)

The French can strike here with VAZIRA, who was second last start in the Prix Saint-Alary. Will relish the step up in trip and she can give Sea The Stars another Group winner. At odds, could entertain having something on the Ballydoyle second-stringer TERRIFIC, although she was extremely disappointing at Chester.

11 – VAZIRA
10 – TERRIFIC
6 – INCHILA
2 – BRACELET

GROUP 1 ASCOT GOLD CUP (2m 4f)

For mine, LEADING LIGHT does look the one to beat, no doubt. But at the trip, I couldn’t be taking odds-on about him, so I’ll be backing two to beat him.

I think there’ll be no worries for BROWN PANTHER at the trip, he’s racing in terrific form and I think he’ll

And at a big price, I’ll be having something small each way on MISSUNITED, who won the Saval Beg Stakes gamely last time out. She’s a seven-year-old mare so her improvement is questionable, but I think she will relish the good-to-firm track conditions.

3 – BROWN PANTHER
14 – MISSUNITED
10 – LEADING LIGHT
13 – ESTIMATE

BRITANNIA STAKES (1m)

Won last year by Roca Tumu, while my tip Llaregyb was nowhere to be seen. Who could have thought, this time last year, that I’d see them on a regular basis in Hong Kong just a year later? Roca Tumu is now Beauty Flame, Llaregyb is now Packing Llaregyb, and both have won this season in Hong Kong.

So who might we be seeing over here? Well, it’s an open race and so it’s a bit of a throw at the stumps. I liked the manner in which MINDUROWNBUSINESS won at Yarmouth last time out, he gets in with absolutely nothing although he may be looking for further now. The other one to catch the eye was HORS DE COMBAY, also impressive last time out at Newmarket.

29 – MINDUROWNBUSINESS
9 – HORS DE COMBAT
3 – ZARWAAN
28 – BORN IN BOMBAY

KING GEORGE V STAKES (1m 4f)

Another open race for emerging stayers, including the first Australian representation for the week with Bremner now owned by clients of Gai Waterhouse.

ELITE ARMY is the favoured of the Godolphin runners but I’m keener on PERSONAL OPINION, who chased solidly last start. The 1m 4f here should be right up his alley. Also keen to see VENEZIA up in trip too.

9 – PERSONAL OPINION
14 – VENEZIA
4 – WINDSHEAR
6 – ELITE ARMY

Hawk’s 2014 Royal Ascot – Day Two Preview and Selections

June 18, 2014

The second day of Royal Ascot is upon us, and I hope to build on what was a solid foundation yesterday. Our best result was Stepper Point finishing second in the King’s Stand Stakes at $23 the place in Hong Kong, but due to the flop of Shea Shea the Double Trio went begging…and that was a costly failure.

Anyway, today is a new day, so hopefully we can find a couple more winners today.

GROUP 3 JERSEY STAKES (7f)

Kingman looks a top, top three-year-old – and that was the case before his St James’s Palace Stakes victory. So I’m going to take a line through his Irish 2000 Guineas win for a guide here, as that looks a strong formline at this stage.

Coming here out of the Irish 2000 Guineas are MUSTAJEEB (third), BIG TIME (fifth), GREAT WHITE EAGLE (sixth) and MICHAELMAS (seventh). And of those, I’m going to go with Big Time, who was first up into the race and plugged away on the soft going for a well-beaten fifth. The step back in trip on top of the ground should suit far better, so I’m confident he’ll run a race at 12-1 or so.

Mustajeeb looks the danger for mine. Always be wary of Dermot Weld bringing one over, especially for the resurgent Sheikh Hamdan, and on his Irish 2000 Guineas run he looks right in this.

The Queen’s MUSICAL COMEDY is stepping up in class and trip but I think is capable of handling both, while the French raider REDBROOK for Alain de Royer-Dupre also looks a chance.

Must say, purely on name – going back to the days where I knew nothing about racing – a win to WALTZING MATILDA would be welcomed ahead of Australia’s clash with the Netherlands at the World Cup tonight.

7 – BIG TIME
5 – MUSTAJEEB
14 – MUSICAL COMEDY
18 – REDBROOK

GROUP 2 QUEEN MARY STAKES (5f)

Again, I’m left completely confused by British juvenile form, so I’ll keep this short and sweet.

American trainer Wesley Ward has become renowned for his trans-Atlantic raids on the juvenile riches at Royal Ascot, and he impressed again yesterday when Hootenanny won the Windsor Castle Stakes. I think he can add a second win for the carnival with SPANISH PIPEDREAM, who won very impressively at Keeneland in late April.

It’s by no means a walkover though – Ed Lynam is another looking for his second win after Sole Power’s King’s Stand Stakes win yesterday, and he looks to have a strong chance in ANTHEM ALEXANDER. She toyed with her rivals at Tipperary last start and a repeat will see her go close.

HARRY’S DANCER looks some chance of adding another success for John Quinn and Al Shaqab Racing after The Wow Signal’s Coventry success, while TIGGY WIGGY looks best of the rest.

21 – SPANISH PIPEDREAM
4 – ANTHEM ALEXANDER
11 – HARRY’S DANCER
22 – TIGGY WIGGY

GROUP 1 PRINCE OF WALES’S STAKES (1m 2f)

This race looks a gift for TREVE, especially considering what Cirrus des Aigles has gone on to do since claiming her scalp in the Prix Ganay. She won the Arc ever so impressively last season, and a return to anywhere near that form will see her competitive here.

She doesn’t look too much of a betting proposition, though, at the current 4/6 on offer, so I’d be going with THE FUGUE each way as a punter. 8/1 seems a big price for a mare who is competitive with the best on her day. Each way, all day.

Third’s a toss up between MUKHADRAM and MAGICIAN, with a slight leaning to the former.

8 – TREVE
7 – THE FUGUE
3 – MUKHADRAM
2 – MAGICIAN

GROUP 2 DUKE OF CAMBRIDGE STAKES (1m)

An open race for the mares, with some talented horses here.

That said, if she returns in peak form, I think SKY LANTERN would be close to my best for the week. Last seen when failing in the Hong Kong Mile, she’d built up a good record over the mile before that with wins in the English 1000 Guineas, Coronation Stakes and Sun Chariot Stakes – and she probably should have beaten Elusive Kate in the Falmouth Stakes too. I’m happy to take her here and I think she’ll prove a tough nut to crack.

INTEGRAL did finish a length behind Sky Lantern in the Sun Chariot Stakes, has five pounds up her sleeve here and does have the benefit of one run under her belt, but I still think Sky Lantern was clearly superior – that length could easily have been more. That said, she does look a clear second pick.

For third, I’m going to go with Godolphin’s second-stringer CERTIFY ahead of their main chance ESOTERIQUE, while GIFTED GIRL looks next best.

1 – SKY LANTERN
8 – INTEGRAL
2 – CERTIFY
6 – ESOTERIQUE

ROYAL HUNT CUP (1m)

A 30 runner mile handicap is enough to strike fear in my heart. The last two years, my selections have run 17th and 23rd, but that was always going to be the case after finding the winner in 2011 – a horse that I’d become very familiar with in Australia called Julienas.

Right down the bottom, the emerging ABSEIL in the Khalid Abdullah colours looks the hardest to beat but he is 9/2 in a 30 runner handicap, so I’ll be looking for a couple to get the better of him.

Hugo Palmer has lofty targets in mind for SHORT SQUEEZE, with the Cox Plate on the horse’s agenda. For the horse to make it into the field for a Cox Plate, though, he’d have to win this well and then make the step up to Group company, all within a few months. It’s a tough ask, but the horse does appear capable of making the transition. He progressed nicely last season, and although I wish he had a run under his belt, I’m happy to have something on him here.

TALES OF GRIMM is always around the mark in these sorts of races and may have found a race to suit at a big price. Probably a tad on the short side distance-wise, but worth something each way.

STIRRING BALLAD hasn’t been seen since failing on this day last year, but on his form prior to that he’s some chance and this looks to have been the plan all along, while Abseil has to go in.

Next best HERE COMES WHEN.

5 – SHORT SQUEEZE
11 – TALES OF GRIMM
27 – STIRRING BALLAD
29 – ABSEIL

LISTED SANDRINGHAM HANDICAP (1m)

Another almost impossible race, a 25 runner handicap for the less exposed three-year-old fillies.

Worth a throw at the stumps though, so going to have something on MIDNITE ANGEL at a big price near the bottom, from MUTEELA, ODISSEIA and PSYCHOMETRY.

But really, a case could be made for nearly all of these horses and it may be better to watch. Or, in my case, have a small each way wager to have something to cheer home.

20 – MIDNITE ANGEL
11 – MUTEELA
17 – ODISSEIA
22 – PSYCHOMETRY

Hawk’s 2014 Royal Ascot – Day One Preview and Selections

June 17, 2014

It’s here – one of the world’s biggest racing festivals, Royal Ascot. Sadly, we’re not trackside this year, but we do get to enjoy it from the comfort of our apartment in Hong Kong.

I love doing the form for Royal Ascot, and this year particularly I’ve been following it much more closely, so hopefully we can find a winner or two.

Hong Kong punters get to bet on the first and last days this year. Local punters love a favourite so sadly we might be taking severe unders here on some horses, like Toronado and Kingman. Nevertheless, hopefully there is a split in the other races, particularly the Ascot Stakes.

Despite only being able to bet on the first and last days, I’ll put up a preview – or even just selections – each day.

Here is my preview of Day One:

GROUP 1 QUEEN ANNE STAKES (1m)

The traditional opener to Royal Ascot, it always intrigues me that what could be considered the best race is the first of 30 races over five days. Obviously, Frankel’s romp of two years ago is still fresh in our minds, but it is a race which consistently holds up.

This year’s edition may not be as strong as always, but there is a very worthy addition to the honour roll in TORONADO. This day 12 months ago, he was just beaten in a messy St James’s Palace Stakes by Dawn Approach, before turning the tables in the Sussex Stakes. He failed in the Juddmonte International Stakes, and has not been seen since. He makes his seasonal reappearance here, and can take the next step.

The two main dangers look to be SOFT FALLING RAIN and VERRAZANO. Soft Falling Rain is enigmatic but on his day, he’s a tough hardy miler who can match it with the best. I favour him slightly ahead of Verrazano, Aidan O’Brien’s former American colt who will be much improved for a first-up third in the Lockinge but, according to my American friends, lacks a bit of ticker. Watching some of his replays, that definitely seems to be the case, and if it gets into a scrap here you wouldn’t want to be on him.

Next best ANODIN, who finished a close up second to Cirrus Des Aigles last start in the Prix d’Ispahan, and MULL OF KILLOUGH.

8 – TORONADO
7 – SOFT FALLING RAIN
10 – VERRAZANO
1 – ANODIN

GROUP 2 COVENTRY STAKES (6f)

Juvenile form is tough to follow anywhere in the world, as horses can jump out of the ground and improve significantly from one start to the next, but British juvenile form seems even tougher. Still, there has to be a winner somewhere…

I was really taken with ADAAY’s two wins, but particularly his last win at Yarmouth, beating Windsor Castle Stakes runner Mind of Madness. He really quickened nicely last time out, and to me he looks to have the traits necessary to salute here. Sheikh Hamdan seems to be going through something of a resurgence at the moment, and Adaay can continue that rise.

THE WOW SIGNAL was another to catch the eye on debut, winning by nine lengths, although the second horse didn’t look to be pushed out entirely. Still, The Wow Signal looks to have an abundance of speed – just like his sire Starspangledbanner – and who knows what improvement he’ll have in him going into his second start.

Next best KOOL KOMPANY – unbeaten from three starts – and WAR ENVOY, who goes in as Aidan O’Brien’s sole entrant. Given Ballydoyle has won two of the last three editions, worth keeping an eye on.

11 – ADAAY
15 – THE WOW SIGNAL
12 – KOOL KOMPANY
16 – WAR ENVOY

GROUP 1 KING’S STAND STAKES (5f)

The King’s Stand Stakes feels a bit empty with no runners from Australia after Zoustar’s injury. In fact, it feels a bit flat with no Hong Kong runners either.

Still, there has to be a winner and I’m convinced if all goes to plan, that winner will be SHEA SHEA. He was arguably unlucky not to beat Sole Power last year, while his only other 5f run in England saw him finish a half length behind roughie Jwala in the Nunthorpe Stakes. He was slightly disappointing in the Al Quoz Sprint last start, but that can be attributed to jockey error as much as anything else. Hopefully Christophe Soumillon can atone here.

It looks a strong European three-year-old crop this year, and a lot of English racing fans are convinced HOT STREAK will be their next star sprinter. His effort in beating owner mate Pearl Secret in the Temple Stakes was solid, and he quickened very nicely with two furlongs to go. I still would prefer to be on Shea Shea at this stage of his career, but Hot Streak could easily be king this time next year.

AHTOUG really improved into the later part of his Dubai campaign, pushing Shea Shea in the Meydan Sprint before finding only Amber Sky too good in the Al Quoz Sprint. He’s yet to race since, but if he runs to that form he’ll be right there at the finish.

Next best is last year’s winner SOLE POWER, while at 50/1, I could have something small on STEPPER POINT.

8 – SHEA SHEA
16 – HOT STREAK
1 – AHTOUG
9 – SOLE POWER

GROUP 1 ST JAMES’S PALACE STAKES (1m)

A mouthwatering clash between the English and Irish 2000 Guineas winners, while the rest of the field doesn’t look too shabby either.

KINGMAN won the Greenham Stakes by almost five lengths to NIGHT OF THUNDER, which is why it was such a shock when Night of Thunder managed to turn the tables in the English 2000 Guineas. Night of Thunder hasn’t raced since, but Kingman went on to win the Irish 2000 Guineas comfortably. The English 2000 Guineas form has also been proven with third-placed Australia going on to win the Derby.

I’m expecting Kingman to prove superior today over Night of Thunder, but hopefully we might see another clash like we did last year between Dawn Approach and Toronado.

For third, I’m going to throw in OUTSTRIP at a price. He was well beaten when last in the 2000 Guineas but is a better horse than he showed on that occasion. Next best WAR COMMAND, who can get up for fourth if he brings his best.

1 – KINGMAN
2 – NIGHT OF THUNDER
3 – OUTSTRIP
6 – WAR COMMAND

ASCOT STAKES (2m 4f)

A race which has been won by a mixture of jumpers and flat horses over the years. The most notable winner in recent years is Simenon, who after a failed jumping career stamped his flat credentials with a six length win in this race.

Tough to sort them out, but going with the lightly raced AGREEMENT, who seems to have struggled as a jumper and makes his debut for John Quinn here. It’s a very open race, though, and could also entertain PERFECT HEART, who looks to be heading higher, SURAJ, who was well beaten in this race last year but seems to be coming right down in the weights, and SIR GRAHAM WADE, who last year finished third to subsequent Gold Cup winner Estimate in the Sagaro Stakes.

16 – AGREEMENT
10 – PERFECT HEART
12 – SURAJ
1 – SIR GRAHAM WADE

LISTED WINDSOR CASTLE STAKES (5f)

Assuming Adaay holds up the form in the Coventry Stakes, I’m very happy to stick with MIND OF MADNESS. He stuck to his guns gamely when Adaay raced past last start, and was only beaten three-quarters of a length. I’d be surprised if he’s not there at the finish.

The logical danger is MERDON CASTLE, who was only beaten a half length by Kool Kompany last start, but I think another danger may be MUBTAGHAA, who quickened very nicely last time out to win and who I think is improving steadily.

Next best, at big odds, is COMMANDER PATTEN, who looks a tough customer who can stick around for a place.

18 – MIND OF MADNESS
19 – MUBTAGHAA
16 – MERDON CASTLE
5 – COMMANDER PATTEN

Hawk’s 2014 The Championships (Day Two) – Selections

April 19, 2014

Today is the second and final day of The Championships at Randwick, with four Group 1 races on the card – including Australia’s second richest race, the Queen Elizabeth Stakes.

Unfortunately, due to time constraints, I’m only able to post my selections for today’s meeting at Randwick. Here they are:

Race 1 – LISTED FERNHILL HANDICAP (1600m)

3 – CARELESS
4 – STANDOUBT
1 – VEUVELICIOUS
2 – CYCLONE

Race 2 – LISTED SOUTH PACIFIC CLASSIC (1400m)

9 – LONGMA
5 – BEAUTY’S BEAST
8 – SPY DECODER
3 – WOODBINE

Race 3 – GROUP 3 ROYAL RANDWICK STAKES (1200m)

6 – SULTRY FEELING
1 – OAKLEIGH GIRL
4 – MEMORIAL
8 – SHAUMARI

Race 4 – GROUP 2 ROYAL SOVEREIGN STAKES (1200m)

11 – BOUNDING
1 – SIDESTEP
3 – DOTHRAKI
9 – CHAUTAUQUA

Race 5 – GROUP 1 QUEEN OF THE TURF STAKES (1600m)

1 – RED TRACER
3 – CATKINS
9 – SOLICIT
2 – STREAMA

Race 6 – GROUP 1 AUSTRALIAN OAKS (2400m)

1 – ZANBAGH
2 – LUCIA VALENTINA
3 – RISING ROMANCE
12 – MISSVONN

Race 7 – GROUP 1 SYDNEY CUP (3200m)

5 – BRIGANTIN
4 – THE OFFER
11 – HIPPOPUS
9 – LET’S MAKE ADEAL

Race 8 – GROUP 1 QUEEN ELIZABETH STAKES (2000m)

10 – SILENT ACHIEVER
6 – HAWKSPUR
11 – ROYAL DESCENT
2 – IT’S A DUNDEEL

Race 9 – GROUP 2 SAPPHIRE STAKES (1200m)

1 – DYSTOPIA
7 – PERON
2 – AVOID LIGHTNING
4 – LILLIBURLERO

Follow

Get every new post delivered to your Inbox.

Join 5,629 other followers

%d bloggers like this: