After the success of our Dubai live blog, I’ve been given the tremendous opportunity to run a similar blog for tonight’s Singapore international race meeting, featuring the Group 1 Singapore Airlines International Cup (2000m) and the Group 1 Krisflyer International Sprint (1200m).
While there are no Australian representatives in the features, Aussie eyes will still be featured on the racecard with many of our former gallopers – the likes of Masthead, Eclair Mystic and Running Tall – among entries tonight. And, from a future point of view, the Krisflyer is considered a prime lead up to the two sprints at Royal Ascot.
I’d love your involvement in the blog tonight – email me at andrew@justhorseracing.com.au or tweet me at @AndrewNJHawkins. Your support will allow these blogs to continue!
Head over to Just Horse Racing (http://www.justhorseracing.com.au/general-news/breaking-news/singapore-international-racing-festival-live-blog-gallopers-go-for-gold-in-the-lion-city/149776) for coverage of the Singapore International Racing Festival!
19/05/2012 – Doomben Cup Day Preview
This is different for me – all Saturday meetings this year bar one have been at awkward times, starting very early in the morning. Until April, it started around 1am. From April onwards, it started around 3am. This has been because I’ve been in Ireland or the United Kingdom for most of these racedays.
But this weekend, I am in Singapore and so today’s races are actually at a pretty convenient time.
Today, I’m going to have a quick look at Doomben as well as the Scone Guineas and the Andrew Ramsden Stakes from Flemington. Most of my efforts this weekend will be invested in the mammoth meeting from Singapore tomorrow – a huge 11 race card.
Here are my thoughts on the Australian races:
DOOMBEN
Group 1 Doomben Cup (2000m)
I do like this race every year for some reason, even though it’s not always a top race. However, there is enough talent in the race this year to suggest it can be a form race for the future. It’s hard to go past MANIGHAR – I think, if form is anything to go by, he just wins. He was the first horse to complete the Australian Cup, Ranvet Stakes and The BMW treble!! Even his run in the Queen Elizabeth Stakes was a top effort. I know it is hard to accept this is the same Manighar who looked a non-winner for Luca Cumani, but he does look the one. The only query is if he has gone over the top, and all reports from trackwork suggest this isn’t the case. Top chance. SCENIC SHOT may be past it but he has an affinity for the Doomben 2000m course, just like he has an affinity for the Flemington 2000m course. He has won two from three at this course and distance – and both were Doomben Cups! He can make it a hat-trick here, and while he is getting on in age I’m wary of him again. He’s a danger. SHEZ SINSATIONAL has been the top weight for age horse in New Zealand this season, as well as stretching out to win the Auckland Cup. She was good in winning the Hollindale Stakes two weeks ago and she’ll be going close. And FORETELLER has looked like winning a good race in recent times. I don’t know if it will be here, he might need to get to a handicap, but I’ll be watching him closely.
1 – MANIGHAR
2 – SCENIC SHOT
10 – SHEZ SINSATIONAL
6 – FORETELLER
Also on the card…
The Group 3 Doomben Roses (2000m) is the premier lead up to the Queensland Oaks. Ethereal, The Jewel, Cinque Cento, Gaze, Heavenly Glow and Scarlett Lady have been some of the notable winners in recent years, while Eskimo Queen ran an incredible race before she took out the Oaks in 2007. Pretty Pins was absolutely terrible last start, beaten 14 lengths on a heavy track – she’d previously been two from two on heavy going. That said, if the real Pretty Pins turns up, she’s a big chance – at much better odds, too. Also, across from New Zealand, I’m expecting a big run from Quintessential. Keep an eye on her.
The Group 3 BRC Sprint (1350m) is the next step for the handicappers on the way to the Stradbroke Handicap. Smokin’ Joey has to be one of the most improved gallopers going around. He’s been racing in this class since his two year old days but he’s just racing in such great heart these days. I’m expecting to see a bold race from him. If there’s one at odds, maybe Gundy Son.
The Group 3 Fred Best Classic (1350m) is a lead up for the Stradbroke Handicap or the Queensland Guineas for the three year olds. I’m keen on Punch On, the Magic Millions Guineas winner who was very good first up. She’s a big chance. At odds, I’ll be keen to see how Shanghai Bund goes. The horse that ran fourth in two NZ Group 1 races was beaten in a Class 2 at the Sunshine Coast and a Class 3 at Ipswich. But he ran well at Doomben last year so I’ll be interested to see if he can find some of his best form.
The Group 3 Glenlogan Park Stakes (1350m) is the fillies and mares equivalent of the prior two races. I’m on Wealth Princess in the Stradbroke so I’m hoping she’ll win here. Given the amount of money I’ve lost on Parables, I’m very much hoping she doesn’t blouse me!
SCONE
Inglis 3yo Guineas (1400m)
This is a good race, with it being the richest country race in Australia. PAMPELONNE looks hard to beat. He won the Gosford Guineas and I think he’ll win better races than this. He’s a deserved favourite. COLORADO CLAIRE won the Phar Lap Stakes and looks well placed here. Looks the only one who can beat the favourite. UPBEAT and MICK’S MANTLE look the next best, but the top two look well clear of the rest.
1 – PAMPELONNE
11 – COLORADO CLAIRE
2 – UPBEAT
14 – MICK’S MANTLE
FLEMINGTON
Listed Andrew Ramsden Stakes (3200m)
This is one of only two 3200m races run at Flemington each year – the other being the world’s most famous handicap, the Melbourne Cup. Last year, Niwot won before going on to run in the Melbourne Cup, finishing eighth. He also won the Sydney Cup. It is hard to envisage any of these horses going on to those heights. I thought STREAKY FELLA was good enough in the Warrnambool Cup to tip him here. The 3200m is a query but I am happy to have him on top. ALMODOVAR is always improving for Peter Moody and looks the only one to have enough upside to one day get to the Cups. DAME CLAIRE was good two weeks ago and if she races handy again is a likely chance, while I think SAVAGING could go alright back on the flat.
5 – STREAKY FELLA
2 – ALMODOVAR
3 – DAME CLAIRE
7 – SAVAGING
Tonight’s race meeting in Singapore is seen as the “teaser” meet ahead of the big international card on Sunday evening.
To read my thoughts on some of the features on the card, go to my article at Just Horse Racing here: http://www.justhorseracing.com.au/news/international-racing/fridays-singapore-meeting-a-prelude-to-international-card/149603
12/05/2012 – The Goodwood/BTC Cup previews
This is only a short preview this week, as I’m currently preparing to finish up here at the University of Limerick. On Tuesday, I leave for Singapore where I will be writing for Just Horse Racing about the Singapore international races – we are likely to run a blog similar to what we presented for Dubai.
This week is all about one horse – no surprises, it’s Black Caviar. Here’s my thoughts on what is to be her 21st start today.
MORPHETTVILLE
Group 1 The Goodwood (1200m)
As has been the case quite often recently, is there really any point in writing a preview for this race? It looks a procession for BLACK CAVIAR, especially at the weights. $1.04 looks awfully generous. She should emerge with a record of 21 wins from 21 starts after today ahead of her overseas sojourn. And while the great people of Adelaide get to see the mare in all her glory today, I’m much more excited about her next race – the Diamond Jubilee Stakes at Royal Ascot. I’ll be trackside in my final couple of days over in Europe – talk about saving the best until last!!! Anyway, unless something goes drastically wrong, she wins easily. Trying to play the exotics is the hard part. I reckon one of Mark Kavanagh’s runners should nab a place, if not both – I’d probably have WE’RE GONNA ROCK ahead of CATAPULTED. For fourth, I might go with STIRLING GROVE. But really, expect a procession! I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again – it is an absolute honour and a privilege to watch her go around. Enjoy it while it lasts.
1 – BLACK CAVIAR
4 – WE’RE GONNA ROCK
2 – CATAPULTED
7 – STIRLING GROVE
Also on the card…
I’m a sucker for punishment. In two of the races today, I’m sticking with horses who have cost me money. But I believe today is their day to shine. The two horses are Houston Benefactor in the Listed Laelia Stakes (1600m) and Seville in the Group 3 R A Lee Stakes (1600m).
Sadly, Crimson Lady seems to be well found in the former SA Oaks, the Group 3 SA Fillies Classic (2500m). To my eye, she looks to have a fair bit of promise as a stayer, although I’m sure at what class. Nevertheless, this is not strong and she can win this today.
In the Listed Proud Miss Stakes (1200m), I reckon Sistine Angel can run a massive race second up after a very good second to Black Caviar first up. She is yet to win second up but she has consistent stats at that point in her preparation and she is dropping quite considerably in grade. She should win.
I’m staying out of the rest.
BRISBANE
Group 1 BTC Cup (1200m)
A much more competitive sprint, although it is a ridiculous situation in that we have two Group 1 1200m races on the same day in different states. Surely it isn’t hard to manage it so they fall on different weekends?
Anyway, the Brisbane Racing Club will be disappointed they didn’t get Black Caviar but happy with the quality of the sprint, I think. Definitely not a classic BTC Cup – how great was last year in comparison – but solid enough. The scratching of Buffering – the likely winner, to be honest – has hit the race a little bit. I’m going to go for a bit of a shock in the race from a Queenslander – FACILE TIGRE. I think he can turn the tables on Woorim here from the Oakleigh Plate and beat him home. I’m not sure the pace will be as strong as the Oakleigh and Woorim’s last couple in Sydney were very disappointing when I was on. Facile Tigre flies fresh and back in Queensland, I think he could be the smokey. Obviously, WOORIM has to be considered if he finds his best form. But it’s too much of a risk for me to have him on top. I’ll put him in second instead. SPIRIT OF BOOM seemed to take the next step last preparation, although he still looks like he’s improving. I think he could be a Stradbroke contender, and if so I’d want to see something from him here. And if BEADED returns to her consistent form, she’ll be right in the mix.
10 – FACILE TIGRE
5 – WOORIM
7 – SPIRIT OF BOOM
11 – BEADED
Also on the card…
The Group 3 Rough Habit Plate (2000m) is the first of the lead ups to the Queensland Derby. I was very keen on Malandrino for Murray Baker after his impressive Manawatu Classic win last start (Virgin Islands actually finished in front of him in a trial last year) but he was scratched after his sale to Hong Kong. Still, I’m sticking with the Kiwis – I’m keen on the filly right down the bottom, Poste Restante. Comes from the same formline and has finished around the mark in quite a few good races over the Tasman.
The Group 3 Chairman’s Handicap (2000m) is filled with Brisbane Cup-bound stayers. Six O’Clock News is having his first start since he ran third to Hollindale Stakes winner Shez Sinsational in the Auckland Cup. He doesn’t go overly well fresh but up to 2000m off a 9 week let up is a positive sign. If there’s one at huge odds, keep an eye on Spechenka. Has three duck eggs next to his name, but his run last week wasn’t overly bad. He’s a big price at $35, especially considering he gets a 3.5kg turnaround on Ironstein for a 2.1L margin last week. Ironstein’s at $9.50.
In the first, Angel of Mercy should win but I’ll be very interested to see one of Mike Moroney’s new imports, Mourasana, while in the last, Solzhenitsyn seems to be the banker for many punters around the country today.
Elsewhere in the country…
At Rosehill, the feature is the Listed Lord Mayor’s Cup (2000m). I’m keen on Crafty Irna, who’s been running consistently and gets nice weight relief here. She’s surprised me, this mare. I was never much of a fan but she is consistent!
And while I won’t be betting in the race, kudos to the Australian Turf Club for holding an 1800m race for two year olds. It’s small steps like this that will slowly revive an interest in breeding stayers.
That’s it from me for this week, good punting!
The first weekend after the Sydney autumn carnival – and yet we still have Group 1 action! I’m writing this from London, where I’m spending some great quality time with my dad. He’s flown over from Singapore, so I’m enjoying it immensely – even though I’ll see him in 10 days when I go to the Singapore Airlines International Cup!
I’ve decided to have a look at five different races around the place today, including two international features. I’ll be writing about the Group 1 South Australian Derby (2500m) at Morphettville, the Group 2 Hollindale Stakes (1800m) from the Gold Coast and the Listed Rowley Mile (1600m) from Hawkesbury, while I’ll be focusing on the 2000 Guineas from Newmarket here in the United Kingdom and the Kentucky Derby across the Atlantic in the United States.
I’ll also have a quick look at other highlights on those respective cards.
Here’s my look at a bumper Saturday of racing worldwide:
MORPHETTVILLE
Group 1 South Australian Derby (2500m)
The South Australian Derby is always a fascinating race – but not always because of the talent that lines up. In fact, it is sometimes the lack of depth that makes it so intriguing. It occasionally throws up a Cups horse – Mummify won the Caulfield Cup in 2003 following victory in this race – but many years the form fails to stack up. It will be interesting to see what happens this year.
STRIKE THE STARS comes into the race with the best form. At his most recent start he finished fourth toEthiopiain the Australian Derby, while his only run in the anti-clockwise direction produced a brilliant second to Mosheen in the Australian Guineas. I think, now he’s had the run at 2400m, he’s the one to beat. In fact, I’d be very surprised if he missed a place. The only horse I can see beating him is TOHUNGA. This son of Zabeel, out of the former top Kiwi mare Justa Tad, is trained by the very much in-form Gai Waterhouse. He’s only coming out of a benchmark 65 at Kembla Grange but he has plenty of scope and is a stayer of the future. Another son of Zabeel, ZABEELIONAIRE, has promised much but has not delivered. He may have won two of his last three but he’s still been grossly disappointing this campaign. If he runs up to his spring form, he’d be going very close but I’m still wary on his current form. For fourth, I don’t really want to offer a tip but I’ll throw in NICONOISE who is at huge odds (fairly) but has shown enough promise at times to suggest he could run a race.
1 – STRIKE THE STARS
17 – TOHUNGA
3 – ZABEELIONAIRE
12 – NICONOISE
Also on the card…
The New Boy has been going well this preparation without winning and looks like he should win the Listed Adelaide Guineas (1600m). One time Newmarket Handicap fancy Decircles resumes in the Peter Elberg Funerals Handicap (1100m).
GOLD COAST
Group 2 Hollindale Stakes (1800m)
This weight for age feature looks a little bit below the class offered up in the last couple of years, nevertheless it looks a competitive affair. As has been the case with much of our weight for age racing over the last 12 months, I think the imports look to have it here. But I’m not going with the favoured import. I think FORETELLER has been good at his two runs this preparation. He’s been looking for this distance and he’s ready to peak third up. He looks the one for me. MAWINGO was very good at Flemington at his Australian debut. He has a lot of scope based on his European form and he looks like he’ll be a contender in the big races come the spring. They will be hoping he wins here to qualify him for the Caulfield Cup. Based on the amount of money that has come for him, you’d think he’ll be going close. SHEZ SINSATIONAL, who was just beaten in last year’s Queensland Derby, has been in great form this season in New Zealand – winning races like the Zabeel Classic and the New Zealand Stakes at weight for age over 2000m, as well as the Auckland Cup, a handicap over 3200m. She was electric first up and if she brings that form to Queensland she’ll be hard to beat. And for fourth, go the old timer SCENIC SHOT, who rocketed home behind Ginga Dude in an on pace dominated race two weeks ago. He looks on track for a big performance in the Doomben Cup in two weeks time.
9 – FORETELLER
12 – MAWINGO
13 – SHEZ SINSATIONAL
1- SCENIC SHOT
Also on the card…
The Group 3 Gold Coast Guineas (1200m) is a feature every year, with a number of horses going on to bigger and better things. Winners include Eremein and Kings Chapel (when the race was over 1400m), as well as Fashions Afield, Gold Edition, El Cambio, Chakvetadze and Military Rose. It seems established form is the way to go for this race. Therefore, I’ll be having something on Florentina, who matched it with the best fillies in Sydney during the spring. I also hope to see Didntcostalot run well for his connections.
The Listed Prime Minister’s Cup (1300m) is the first chance for potential Stradbroke lightweights to reveal their hand. I’m expecting this race to be perfect for the local Fillydelphia, who I think is more a sprinter-miler than a 2000m type. Metallurgical is the other one who looks at big odds.
The Listed Gold Coast Bracelet (1800m) promises to reveal more about the Queensland Oaks, with most fillies heading to the Doomben Roses in two weeks. To my eye, it looks a two horse race between Miss Artistic, the NZ Oaks winner, and the emerging Pretty Pins. I’d be having something on Pretty Pins, who looks a very nice horse in the making. You’ll be hearing more about her in the coming months.
The Listed Silk Stocking (1200m) for the fillies and mares is a competitive event, if not overly classy. Beethog has won on this day the last two years, winning the Gold Coast Guineas in 2010 and this race last year. Despite her poor run first up, she’s surely worth a ticket at 50-1.
The Listed Ken Russell Memorial Classic (1200m) for two year olds is named for jockey Ken Russell, who tragically died at Rosehill in the mid-1990s. It’s always a great race, and this year looks to be no exception. I was keen on Hoss Amor but she is scratched, so instead I’ll expect Sizzling to run a huge race.
I’ll also be keen to see the very promising Rocker as he progresses through the grades in the third race, the Surfers Paradise RSL Benchmark 90 Handicap over 1200m.
HAWKESBURY
Listed Rowley Mile (1600m)
The only fitting way that this race can end up is if Gai Waterhouse, the queen of the 2012 Sydney Carnival, can quinella the race. She has a very good chance of doing this. I think, however, that she can win the race with the rejuvenated WESTERN SYMBOL. If you’d told me I’d have him in a race like this at the start of the carnival, I would have scoffed. But he is going very well. He’s heading towards the Brisbane Cup and I now think Gai may have another good Kiwi import on her hands. FAST CLIP is a bit hit and miss but his Doncaster run was very good. Goes up in weight substantially here, but drops a lot in class. Still, prefer the stablemate on the up. ALMA’S FURY was good behind Fast Clip in the Doncaster Mile Prelude when not much made ground and he’s had three weeks between runs, while I’ll be keen to see how WAZN goes for Chris Waller first up.
2 – WESTERN SYMBOL
1 – FAST CLIP
7 – ALMA’S FURY
6 – WAZN
Also on the card…
The Listed Darley Crown (1300m) ironically features two Darley scratchings! They still have one runner though, and I think that’s as good a lead as any. Load up on Screen!
In the Hawkesbury Guineas (1400m), Landing is a short priced favourite as he has been very impressive in remaining unbeaten. However, I can’t quite believe the price around Pied a Terre and I’m happy to take him at the double figure quote!
NEWMARKET
Group 1 2000 Guineas (a1600m)
The first of the English classics for 2012. Run over the straight mile at Newmarket, it is hard to believe the flat season is already here again. This race creates legends. Last year, it was the freakish Frankel who turned on one of the most incredible displays I’ve seen, leading out comfortably and opening up a fifteen length gap on the field at the halfway mark. He won very comfortably and remains unbeaten. Two seasons before that, it was another legend in Sea The Stars who began his remarkable three year old season in style. Therefore, this is the stepping stone to greater heights – even though this is a pretty big mountain to climb in the first place!
This year’s race looks strong, with Aidan O’Brien particularly looking to have a strong hand. I do think it isIreland’s race to lose, but I’m going to look outside of the favourite, who had a setback over the winter. Instead, I’m going to go for BORN TO SEA – the half brother to Sea The Stars and Galileo. He looked a good type inIrelandas a two year old, albeit a galloper who would make a better three year old. I think he’ll be heading to Epsom after this but I’d love to see him win here. CAMELOT is the favourite and deservedly so, given his big win in the Group 1 Racing Post Trophy (1600m) at Doncaster in October. He’ll be better suited in theDerbybut no reason he can’t run well here, and the market suggests he’ll run a big race. Big chance for Aidan O’Brien. The stablemate POWER looks more a miler but I don’t think he has the class of Camelot. But the fact he’ll be more suited at the distance could have an influence. For fourth, throw in the each way chance FENCING, who ranks below Camelot on performances last year but looked to have improvement in him as a three year old. I think this will be a very good edition of the Guineas.
3 – BORN TO SEA
5 – CAMELOT
11 – POWER
8 – FENCING
Also on the card…
Melbourne Cup winner Dunaden returns in the Group 2 Jockey Club Stakes (a2400m). He looks set to go off as third favourite behind Grand Prix de Paris winner Meandre and the emerging Fiorente. Also in the field are OTI Racing’s Cumberland Lodge Stakes winner Quest for Peace, a likely Melbourne Cup contender this year, and last year’s English St Leger winner Masked Marvel. In a race of many chances, Quest for Peace looks at good odds given his brilliant win in the Cumberland Lodge Stakes. I’d be willing to have something on him to beat the Melbourne Cup winner.
CHURCHILL DOWNS
Group 1 Kentucky Derby (a2000m)
The Kentucky Derby, the Run for the Roses, is America’s great race. Known by American sporting enthusiasts as the “most exciting two minutes in sport”, it is a great occasion. It is legendary – from the crowd’s stirring rendition of My Old Kentucky Home to the customary mint juleps, it is one of the world’s most famous racedays on and off the track. But as always, much of the action revolves around which three year old will prove his mettle in this race of much importance.
I’m not a huge American racing fan. I think there are a lot of flaws with their industry and I don’t know if they have a sustainable model moving into the future. Nevertheless, I’m still in awe of the Kentucky Derby. I cannot wait to stand trackside at Churchill Downs one day.
Anyway, to this year’s race – as usual, how open!!! The Racing Post is calling this “the most accomplished field for at least a decade” while ESPN says “a compelling case can probably be made for half the field”. Bodemeister, who did not run as a two year old, is the current favourite following his thumping victory in the Arkansas Derby. However, the horse I was really taken with in the lead ups was Blue Grass Stakes winner DULLAHAN. His effort to come from a long way back to gun down Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner Hansen, showing a tremendous turn of foot, was very commendable. I think he has the ideal style for a Kentucky Derby and I’m keen to back him. His main danger to my eyes is UNION RAGS. I was with a few American journos in Dubai when he ran third to Take Charge Indy and they believed he was hard done by. He certainly lost no admirers that day. He’s being touted as a potential contender for the Triple Crown, so I’d love to see him win here. The ghostly grey HANSEN, I have to include given I rank Dullahan so highly. He beat Union Rags in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile on this track last year but I’m not sure if he’s at his best. However, the connections are supremely confident. And BODEMEISTER comes in next best, but he’s under the odds in my opinion. At each way value, UAE Derby winner Daddy Long Legs (for Aidan O’Brien and Ireland) and Creative Cause look the next best. But I’m very keen on the prospects of Dullahan!
5 – DULLAHAN
4 – UNION RAGS
14 – HANSEN
6 – BODEMEISTER
Enjoy the next 24 hours of fantastic racing – and cheer home the mighty Blues (ie Chelsea) in the FA Cup Final in the early hours of Sunday morning!!!
28/04/2012 – Sydney Cup/Australasian Oaks Day Preview
I’ll be doing things slightly differently this week.
I’ve been offline for most of this week, as I was in Turkey for Anzac Day commemorations at Gallipoli (on a side note, keep an eye on Andrew Hawkins Travel this week for an article I’m going to write about the Gallipoli experience). With no laptop and no phone, I have only spent the last few hours doing the form for today’s meetings.
With that in mind, I will not be doing a runner-by-runner preview for any of the Group 1 races this week. However, I will still do a race-by-race preview. There are a couple of races which I think are straightforward (as does the market) so I won’t devote too much attention to them.
Firstly, I’ll have a look at Sydney’s card – the final meeting of the autumn carnival. Although I do like the stand alone meetings at Hawkesbury and Scone, I don’t consider them to be part of the autumn carnival.
Then I’ll have a look at the two Group 1s from Adelaide, including Black Caviar shooting for her 20th win in the Robert Sangster Stakes.
It promises to be a huge day of racing!
ROYAL RANDWICK
Race 1 – Listed James H B Carr Stakes (1400m)
There’s never usually much between the three year old fillies over this distance, as the P J Bell showed once again. Outside of the top three or four, they are all pretty even. I really liked ANGEL OF MERCY’s run in the P J Bell, she flew late. Getting up to 1400m will suit, I can see her swooping late. HALLOWELL BELLE comes from the different formline, having run third against the older males in the T J Smith Stakes before running third to Pampelonne in the Gosford Guineas last week. Back to fillies company should suit. EVER THE SAME was good at Canterbury, beating many of these fillies, and she’ll go well again. Jimmy Cassidy’s very confident she won’t be beaten. And at big odds, FAST AND SEXY goes alright. She ran last at her first run as a three year old at Canterbury, but something appeared to be amiss – she trialled well last week. I think she could be the massive improver.
7 – ANGEL OF MERCY
2 – HALLOWELL BELLE
3 – EVER THE SAME
6 – FAST AND SEXY
Race 2 – Group 3 Frank Packer Plate (2000m)
I like this race every year as it can throw up a nice horse – either a horse coming back from the Derby or a horse off alternative formlines. The last two winners of the race – Shootoff and Dariana – went on to win the Queensland Derby, while Clangalang (2003), Freemason (2000) and Might and Power (1997) are other notable winners in recent years. I like the notion of a horse coming off alternative formlines to win this, which narrows my selections considerably. I understand the hype around Fat Al, but I really like IGGI POP as a horse. I think you’ll be hearing a lot more about this horse in the next few months. By Savabeel out of an O’Reilly mare, I reckon he’s probably Queensland-bound. He’ll be hard to beat. AMBIDEXTER ran fourth in the Rosehill Guineas at his last start, after running fourth to Mosheen in the Randwick Guineas. I’m wondering why he missed the Australian Derby, and it seems weird to me he’s had the four weeks between runs. But if he’s fit, he’ll go close. I think ISOPACH has largely been forgotten. His run in the Tulloch Stakes was outstanding, and while he’s inconsistent, he has a similar profile to Shootoff last year. Good each way value. And I guess I’ll put FAT AL in for fourth but I’m still not as keen on him as many others appear to be.
7 – IGGI POP
2 – AMBIDEXTER
1 – ISOPACH
5 – FAT AL
Race 3 – Group 1 Champagne Stakes (1600m)
What’s going to beat PIERRO? Nothing. Even if he doesn’t run a strong 1600m (and his pedigree suggests he should run it pretty easily) he has a clear class advantage on most of this field. He should be another winner of the two year old triple crown for Gai Waterhouse. RACEWAY will lead them up and if he doesn’t go as strong as he did in the Sires Produce Stakes he could hold on to run second. Can’t see him defeating the stablemate though. But it would be fitting if Gai ran the quinella here. She also has a connection with my third selection, FLYING SNITZEL, in that she trained her dam Hula Flight to win the 1996 Metropolitan (defeating subsequent Cox Plate and Melbourne Cup winner Saintly). Gerald Ryan’s charge won the Baillieu in good style on Slipper day, defeating Fernhill winner Dear Demi. She’s the fresh horse on the scene. And it would be nice to see a big run from DEAR DEMI, trained by the juvenile master Clarry Conners.
1 – PIERRO
2 – RACEWAY
8 – FLYING SNITZEL
9 – DEAR DEMI
Race 4 – Group 2 Emancipation Stakes (1600m)
I’m sure most of the connections involved in this race would be cheering that Atlantic Jewel will appear a race later instead. FIBRILLATION is the mare in form. I understand she’s probably better on a wet track, but seeing as she was able to win on a good track last start, I can’t see why she can’t do it again. MISS KEEPSAKE has been racing in good heart this preparation, she loves a firm track which she should get here and she looks fairly well weighted. The Ron Quinton stable is flying and CRAFTY IRNA looks on track for a good showing here, while SKYERUSH should be considered now she’s shown a glimmer of form again.
3 – FIBRILLATION
1 – MISS KEEPSAKE
5 – CRAFTY IRNA
7 – SKYERUSH
Race 5 – Group 1 All Aged Stakes (1400m)
A big test for the unbeaten ATLANTIC JEWEL here, stepping up to take on the older boys over a distance still short of her best. I think she will win and I would be desperately disappointed if she couldn’t win. But second up after her injury is a query (although her second up win last preparation was simply mindblowing). Michael Rodd will have to make sure the other jockeys don’t out-manouevre him. I think he needs to be especially cautious of Christian Reith on Rain Affair, who can appear to be travelling a lot faster than he actually is. This gives him an easier lead than thought – and he’s a tenacious bugger. That same description could be given to KING MUFHASA, the tough Kiwi. He’s finally come of age this season with recognition in Australia after two Group 1 victories. Take Atlantic Jewel out and he looks the one on paper – I’d back him to beat Rain Affair any day. I’ll put RAIN AFFAIR in for third because I can’t see him being challenged for the lead. That’s always a worry. And for fourth, I’ll include HAPPY ZERO because I still believe he’s on track to produce a big performance this preparation.
7 – ATLANTIC JEWEL
1 – KING MUFHASA
3 – RAIN AFFAIR
4 – HAPPY ZERO
Race 6 – Group 1 Sydney Cup (3200m)
The Sydney Cup has attracted a nice field this year, with many chances among the 16 runners. Call me whatever you want, but I’m sticking with the grey EFFICIENT. Am I crazy? Probably. But if I was willing to back him in the Chairman’s Handicap, I think I have to stick with him here. I trust the training facilities at Macedon Lodge so I don’t doubt his fitness too much. It’s just whether he’s still good enough to win a Sydney Cup with the topweight of 58kg. But I do think he can measure up, so I have to have him in the mix. Hard to believe his last 3200m run (and his last run beyond 2000m) was 1635 days ago – and that was when he swept home to win the Melbourne Cup. If he can produce anywhere near his best, look out. NIWOT was the first Australian horse home in the Melbourne Cup, beating four of his rivals here comfortably (Precedence, Drunken Sailor, Hawk Island, Older Than Time). He’s been going very well in weight for age races. He drops back to a handicap, he’s been crying out for the distance and he looks hard to beat. OLDER THAN TIME is going better than she was twelve months ago I reckon, even though she hasn’t won this preparation. She’s still producing consistently, and she did run second last year, so an improved showing would see her in the mix here. And DRUNKEN SAILOR was fantastic in the BMW after running second in the Adelaide Cup. I’m not sure he runs a strong 3200m but not many here do. He’s in with a chance. While I’m not including him in my top four, I’m going to be watching Peal of Bells very closely. He’s a rating 63 galloper – he is not in the same ballpark as any of these. But he’s been flying in much lesser races. Wouldn’t surprise me to see him run above his rating, not threatening the main players but showing he may have a staying future.
1 – EFFICIENT
3 – NIWOT
9 – OLDER THAN TIME
2 – DRUNKEN SAILOR
Race 7 – Group 1 Queen Elizabeth Stakes (2000m)
This is definitely an epic edition of the Queen Elizabeth Stakes. Don’t know if it is the best in decades, as described by one former jockey, but it definitely is up there with some of the good editions. So many questions will be answered – was Manighar perhaps lucky to beat Americain in the Australian Cup and the BMW? Does Americain have the dash to win over 2000m? Can More Joyous extend her stamina to 2000m? Is Jimmy Choux the same horse he once was? I’m looking to a double figure winner. I think JIMMY CHOUX’s a big chance. Forget the fact he ran 7th first up – it was in a handicap, he had to carry 61kg and he was never likely to be suited. He’ll take great benefit for that run and back to weight for age he should be in his element. He’s unbeaten second up and the only time he’s been beaten at around 2000m, he was beaten by a freakish ride on Pinker Pinker in the Cox Plate. At around $11, I think he’s a nice bet. I think MANIGHAR has to go down as the danger. Doesn’t look to be a great deal of pace in the race, which means he should be suited to the race more than Americain – at least on what we saw in the Australian Cup and the BMW. I think people are still choosing to ignore the fact that Manighar is clearly a different horse under Peter Moody – he may or may not have improved, but he’s showing traits he didn’t have before – and I think it’s because he’s adapted well to Moody’s training methods. It’s hard to underrate a winner of the Australian Cup, Ranvet Stakes and BMW but yet, here we are. Clear danger. I’d much prefer to see the BMW run again so the AMERICAIN could win as he really should have, but oh well. As said above, I think Manighar has the edge over the shorter trip. But any chink in the armour of Manighar and Americain will be there to pounce. And for fourth, I was going to put in More Joyous but I’m not sure about her at the trip. I’d prefer to have RANGIRANGDOO, who will also be up on the speed but who I know will see the trip out very strongly. Great race!
3 – JIMMY CHOUX
2 – MANIGHAR
1 – AMERICAIN
4 – RANGIRANGDOO
Race 8 – Listed Hall Mark Stakes (1200m)
The final race of the Sydney Carnival! And to be honest, it’s a race that I would be unlikely to touch today. It’s very open. My initial thoughts were to stick with Elite Falls, but of course she’s scratched. PINWHEEL has been heavily supported and it is easy to understand why. Although he’s never won at the track, he’s been placed five from six here. He was good first up behind Zaratone. I think today’s the day he can break the Randwick duck. LATIN NEWS has been going well, I thought he was great in Queensland when he ran third making up late ground on all-the-way winner Adebisi. Going well enough to run well here. TIGER TEES was hyped up quite a bit during the summer but he’s almost gone under the radar here. He looks a chance. And NOBBY SNIP was very good in the Galaxy last week and would be a fitting winner for Gai Waterhouse, who has really made this carnival her own.
4 – PINWHEEL
6 – LATIN NEWS
9 – TIGER TEES
8 – NOBBY SNIP
MORPHETTVILLE
Race 5 – Group 1 Schweppes (Australasian) Oaks (2000m)
The Robert Sangster Stakes (which I’ll discuss below) is a one act affair. This is the total opposite. What an open race. And I’m going for a filly that won a R62 race two starts back to win a Group 1 here. Crazy. The filly I’ve selected is CRIMSON LADY, who absolutely flew home in the lead up to this race, the Auraria Stakes. She’s drawn poorly again here, out in barrier 20, but I can still see her sitting back last and just powering over the top of them. Good odds. OUR MISS JONES has had her runs spaced this preparation but she looks like she’s been wanting 2000m. Still a maiden but she’s knocking on the door. She’ll win one soon. Will it be a Group 1? I’m not sure EMPRESS ROCK will stay the distance but she’s got a class edge on the majority of this field, so she goes in. And seeing as I’m placing a fair emphasis on the Auraria as the form race, I should include the winner CRUCIAL in my top four. To me, the most interesting runner is Sharnee Rose. I know some notable judges believe her to be Australia’s most talented maiden, but it’s a big jump from 1400m to 2000m in two weeks. She’s a chance but I think she’s too big a risk.
15 – CRIMSON LADY
10 – OUR MISS JONES
1 – EMPRESS ROCK
2 – CRUCIAL
Race 7 – Group 1 Sportingbet Classic – Robert Sangster Stakes (1200m)
What a great bonus for Adelaide racing to have BLACK CAVIAR over there! She’ll win her 20th race, there’s hardly any doubt about that, but I think most of the discussion will be on two points – one, what are the benefits for South Australian racing out of her appearance, and two, how will it set her up for a tilt at Royal Ascot. I’m sure you’ll see a lot written about those two points post-race. But for now, just enjoy Black Caviar doing what she does best – making it look oh too easy. I think it will be worth listening in just for the call from Hilton Donaldson. For second, LONE ROCK looks well ahead of the others. She wasn’t too far off Black Caviar and Hay List in the Lightning Stakes, so she should beat the rest comfortably. I think the market has it right – SISTINE ANGEL and VALENTINE MISS look the next best, but they’ll be well behind Black Caviar. Go girl!
1 – BLACK CAVIAR
2 – LONE ROCK
5 – SISTINE ANGEL
6 – VALENTINE MISS
Have a great day of punting today!
21/04/2012 – Doncaster Mile Day Preview
Doncaster Mile Day is always a brilliant card. It’s just a shame that it seems to be prone to stormy weather.
It’s a tough meeting to decipher this year and I’m not overly confident about playing today. We’ll see. Perhaps just stick to the Doncaster!
Here are my thoughts on today’s racecard:
Race 1 – Listed Fernhill Handicap (1600m)
First chance for the two year olds to get out to a mile. Think the market pretty much has it right. DEAR DEMI was very good on Golden Slipper day when she charged home over 1400m. The step up to 1600m suits and she should win. RED HOT CHILLIES down the bottom has not finished better than sixth but a lot of good judges have an opinion of her. The trip should suit and she has a chance. ROWIE was good on debut and quickly steps up to the 1600m, while HONORIUS probably wants the 1600m now. But Dear Demi looks the one.
1 – DEAR DEMI
11 – RED HOT CHILLIES
2 – ROWIE
6 – HONORIUS
Race 2 – Listed Keith Mackay Quality (1200m)
Wow, 12 months ago my best of the day won in this race – a gutsy filly called Streama, who goes around favourite in the ATC Oaks today over twice the trip! I’m surprised Gai’s running Driefontein here. She was great in the Slipper after she missed the kick, but 60.5kg on a bog track is a big ask of a two year old filly. I’m going to have something on MEDUSA’S MISS. Bolted in at big odds on debut. Well bred, being a half sister to Mummify. Chance. DRIEFONTEIN goes in on class but she’s not a betting proposition. MEIDUNG probably didn’t measure up the way they hoped but this looks a good race for her, while AGUEDA is on the quick back up which is a good sign.
5 – MEDUSA’S MISS
1 – DRIEFONTEIN
3 – MEIDUNG
2 – AGUEDA
Race 3 – The Keystone Group Handicap (1400m)
Back to benchmark racing on a Saturday…oh well, it had to happen sooner or later. It’s actually a good race this, a clash between potential Stradbroke contenders Lightinthenite and Riva de Lago. LIGHTINTHENITE is unbeaten first up and he can maintain that record here. I think he’ll be more suited in this race here. RIVA DE LAGO is a promising horse but a lot can go wrong for him. He needs plenty to go write here to win. Outside of these two, maybe the mares SKYERUSH and QUIDNUNC. But it looks a race in two.
6 – LIGHTINTHENITE
9 – RIVA DE LAGO
1 – SKYERUSH
5 – QUIDNUNC
Race 4 – Listed South Pacific Classic (1400m)
A fascinating race, if nothing else, with the unbeaten horse of Gai’s in the field. You also have the previously unbeaten Sacred Pins coming off a flop last start and a host of other horses who’ve shown potential throughout their careers. I’m actually going to go outside the top two and go with MAHISARA, who has needed the step up in trip. He’s value. SACRED PINS will improve as the distances increase, so 1400m should be no worry. LANDING will be out to maintain his unbeaten record while AERONAUTICAL finds a drop in class here.
2 – MAHISARA
5 – SACRED PINS
7 – LANDING
4 – AERONAUTICAL
Race 5 – Group 1 ATC Oaks (2400m)
I’ve said it already and I’ll say it again – what was looking one of the highlights of the autumn now looks an absolute shocker. A month ago, it looked like being Mosheen vs Silent Achiever vs Streama. Now, only the latter lines up. She is heads and shoulders above them classwise, so it depends if she’ll stay the trip. Actually, to be honest, I don’t think she needs to stay the trip – she should be too good. STREAMA on top. For second, go with the Tasmanian Oaks winner ROCK ROBSTER (yep, that’s how ordinary this race is). She could get out in front and keep rolling. FULL OF SPIRIT is the fresh horse on the scene, while THY may be strongest at the finish. But if Streama can’t win this, then she’s definitely a few grades below her spring form.
1 – STREAMA
3 – ROCK ROBSTER
2 – FULL OF SPIRIT
5 – THY
Race 6 – Listed Japan Racing Association Plate (2000m)
It’s not often you get a run as fourth emergency, but Star Thoroughbreds will be happy Kinnersley snuck into the field. I reckon last year’s winner can win again, although he’s not racing as well. But he gets the wet track he so desires and he carries less weight than last year, so I’ll be on HAWK ISLAND. SOUTHERN SKYE looks like he’s returning to form and this is a suitable race. He’ll be in the mix. WESTERN SYMBOL won fairly well on Golden Slipper day. He’s coming through the grades. And who knows which HERCULIAN PRINCE will turn up, but if it is the Group 1 winner, he’ll give a sight.
1 – HAWK ISLAND
13 – SOUTHERN SKYE
9 – WESTERN SYMBOL
2 – HERCULIAN PRINCE
Race 7 – Group 1 Doncaster Mile (1600m)
Click here to read my preview of the Doncaster Mile
Race 8 – Group 1 The Galaxy (1100m)
Tough sprint. I think ELITE FALLS might be the one here. Was outstanding in the Galaxy before running okay in the Challenge Stakes. Should get pace on here to suit and I can see her zipping home. This has been her goal all spring. Chance. I’ve been a BORDER REBEL fan for a while and I think he’s been forgotten somewhat. Remember, on his day, he was a brilliant sprinter. If the true Border Rebel turns up, expect a big run. THANKGODYOU’REHERE was good first up in this race last year. On a similar path and should be respected. And WINTER KING goes well on a wet track, he’s in with an each way show. But as always, The Galaxy is tough.
11 – ELITE FALLS
7 – BORDER REBEL
3 – THANKGODYOU’REHERE
10 – WINTER KING
Race 9 – TAB Sportsbet Sprint (1200m)
Another benchmark race to end the day. It’s open. I remember WITHOUT COMPROMISE winning at Randwick in the mud by eight or nine lengths. This was four or five years ago, but still, first up – he’s a chance. He’s at good odds too. KIMBERLEY KID grows another leg on the wet track, and although he was poor first up, he’ll improve rapidly. MISS MARX has been a bit disappointing in recent times, hopefully she can run well, while STARTREUSSE was massive first up. Wet track’s a query. But go wide in the final leg of the quaddie!
4 – WITHOUT COMPROMISE
9 – KIMBERLEY KID
10 – MISS MARX
16 – STARTREUSSE
Good luck with all your investments today, and may you back a winner!
